Discover the Yankees vs Royals Head-to-Head Preview and Score Prediction – Thursday, June 12th, 2025

New York Yankees

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Kansas City Royals

The Kansas City Royals will face off against the New York Yankees on June 12, 2025, in the third game of their series at Kauffman Stadium. This matchup is significant as the Yankees, currently boasting a 41-25 record, are operating at a high level, while the Royals sit at a mediocre 34-34 this season. The Yankees triumphed in their last encounter, winning 6-3, and they are also considered one of the strongest teams in the league, ranking 1st in offense this season.

Projected starters for this game are Seth Lugo for the Royals and Will Warren for the Yankees. Lugo has had a solid campaign in terms of ERA, sitting at 3.46, despite a below-average Power Rankings position at #132 among pitchers. His performance has been somewhat buoyed by good fortune, as suggested by his xFIP of 4.07. Interestingly, Lugo’s projections indicate he may struggle with hit and walk rates today, allowing an average of 5.9 hits and 1.7 walks.

Warren, on the other hand, has a 5.34 ERA but is expected to perform better going forward due to an xFIP of 3.33, which suggests he may have been unlucky thus far. While both pitchers have had their ups and downs, it’s Warren’s high strikeout rate of 29.4% that could pose challenges for a Royals offense that ranks as the 2nd least in strikeouts.

Betting markets see this as a close affair, with the Yankees favored at -130 and the Royals at +110. The game’s total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting the balance between the potent Yankee offense and the Royals’ struggles to generate consistent runs. The projections suggest the Royals might be undervalued, making this game critical for them to shift momentum in their favor.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that flyball hitters have a sizeable advantage over groundball pitchers, Will Warren and his 45% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position today being matched up with 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.299) provides evidence that Ben Rice has had some very poor luck this year with his .240 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .315, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .349 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Seth Lugo’s curveball percentage has dropped by 5.4% from last year to this one (26.3% to 20.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 12.9% seasonal rate to 23.3% over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 60 games (+24.00 Units / 35% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-125)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 46 games (+9.05 Units / 12% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+170/-225)
  Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+6.40 Units / 18% ROI)