Discover the Pirates vs Rangers Preview and Prediction – Wednesday August 21, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

@

Texas Rangers

As the Texas Rangers prepare to face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 21, 2024, both teams enter the matchup struggling this season, with the Rangers sitting at 58-69 and the Pirates at 59-66. Their records indicate a below-average performance, but with the series tied, this game carries added significance for both squads.

In their most recent game, the Rangers managed to secure a much-needed victory and are looking to build on that momentum. Andrew Heaney, projected to start for the Rangers, has had a tumultuous year, marked by a disappointing 4-13 record over 24 starts, although his 4.20 ERA indicates he hasn’t been entirely ineffective. Despite being ranked 157th among MLB starters, Heaney is expected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings and allow 2.3 earned runs, while projecting 5.9 strikeouts. However, his tendency to allow 4.6 hits and 1.5 walks could pose challenges against the Pirates’ lineup.

On the other side, the Pirates will hand the ball to Domingo German, who has yet to make a start this season but has been decent in his three relief appearances with an impressive 3.00 ERA. His projections indicate he will pitch around 4.7 innings, likely allowing 2.6 earned runs while striking out 4.0 batters. Yet, German’s xFIP of 7.61 suggests he may have been fortunate this season, raising concerns about his performance sustainability.

Offensively, the Rangers have struggled, ranking 23rd in MLB, while the Pirates aren’t much better at 27th. Adolis Garcia has been the Rangers’ standout hitter, boasting a .321 average and 1.023 OPS over the past week. Meanwhile, Jared Triolo has stepped up for the Pirates, achieving a .286 average and 1.159 OPS in his recent outings.

With the Rangers sitting as the betting favorite at -165, the projections favor their chances. They hold a favorable implied team total of 4.71 runs, while the Pirates come in at 3.79 runs. As both teams look to gain traction, this matchup promises to be intriguing, especially for those keeping a close eye on the performances of both pitchers.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Domingo German – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Domingo German has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  In notching a 34.100 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Oneil Cruz is ranked in the 96th percentile for power.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  With 8 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Andrew Heaney will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+125)
  Wyatt Langford is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 5th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+15.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-165)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 54 of their last 95 games (+13.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Joey Bart has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 14 away games (+7.90 Units / 56% ROI)