New York Mets
Houston Astros
(-120/+100)-110
As the Houston Astros prepare to host the New York Mets on March 28, 2025, both teams are looking to establish momentum early in the season. The Astros enter this matchup fresh off a victory against the Mets, showcasing their strong start with a record of 1-0. Meanwhile, the Mets are struggling, having dropped their opening game to the same opponent, putting them at 0-1.
The Astros are projected to start Hunter Brown, who ranks as the 41st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Brown’s performance is solid, with projections indicating he will pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing around 2.1 earned runs, and striking out 5.9 batters. However, he faces a challenge with a projected average of 4.3 hits and 2.0 walks allowed, which could open the door for the Mets’ offense.
On the other side, the Mets will counter with Tylor Megill, whose projections indicate a rough outing. Megill is expected to pitch only 4.8 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out a below-average 4.4 batters. His struggles are compounded by the fact that he may surrender 4.7 hits and 1.7 walks, which could spell trouble against an Astros lineup that ranks 8th in MLB offensively and 3rd in team batting average.
With the game total set at 8.0 runs, betting markets suggest a close contest, reflected in the Astros’ moneyline of -120 and the Mets’ at +100. The Astros’ offense boasts strong underlying talent, while the Mets also have a respectable ranking at 9th. However, given the Astros’ edge in starting pitching and their recent form, they appear to have the upper hand in this matchup.
New York Mets Insights
- Tylor Megill – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Tylor Megill is projected to throw 82 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of all pitchers on the slate.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side (0) today against Hunter BrownExplain: Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 9th-deepest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Houston Astros Insights
- Hunter Brown – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Hunter Brown in the 86th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
- Houston Astros – Moneyline (-110)The 4th-best projected batting order of the day in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Houston Astros.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 90 of their last 159 games (+18.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 69 of their last 112 games (+20.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- Hunter Brown – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-200/+155)Hunter Brown has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+7.90 Units / 40% ROI)