Milwaukee Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)-130
The St. Louis Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers on April 25, 2025, in the first game of their series at Busch Stadium. Both teams find themselves struggling in the standings, with the Cardinals at 10-15 and the Brewers slightly better at 13-13. While the Cardinals rank as the 6th best offense in MLB this season, their performance has been inconsistent, especially with a troubling 20th ranking in home runs.
In their last matchup, the Cardinals suffered a complete game shutout loss, highlighting their difficulties this season. Nevertheless, they are projected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has shown promise despite a subpar record of 1-2. His ERA sits at a respectable 3.60, suggesting he’s been a bit unlucky this year, as indicated by his lower xFIP of 2.79. Liberatore is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, though he’ll need to tighten up his control, as he projects to give up 1.7 walks and 5.1 hits.
On the other side, the Brewers are set to start Chad Patrick, whose 2.11 ERA stands out as excellent. However, his xFIP of 4.38 suggests he may not sustain this performance. Patrick is also projected for a 5.4-inning outing, and like Liberatore, he faces challenges with hits and walks allowed, projecting similar figures in those areas.
Betting markets lean toward the Cardinals, currently lining them at -135, which reflects confidence in their offensive power to break through against Patrick. Given their recent struggles, the Cardinals will need to capitalize on their hitting capabilities, especially as they look to improve from their current rankings.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)Chad Patrick is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #27 HR venue in Major League Baseball in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Sal Frelick has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)In today’s matchup, Rhys Hoskins is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.6% rate (98th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)With 6 bats of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Matthew Liberatore will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Pedro Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)From last season to this one, Pedro Pages’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 90.7 mph to 83.3 mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- The St. Louis Cardinals (20.4 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.60 Units / 24% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 23 games (+11.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 away games (+7.15 Units / 24% ROI)