Minnesota Twins
Miami Marlins
(+100/-120)+120
On July 1, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Minnesota Twins at LoanDepot Park for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams are currently having below-average seasons, with the Marlins at 37-45 and the Twins at 40-44. Notably, the Marlins are underdogs in this matchup, with a moneyline of +120, despite having a better offensive ranking than the Twins in some categories.
Projected starters for the game are Edward Cabrera for the Marlins and Joe Ryan for the Twins. Cabrera, ranked 109th among MLB starting pitchers, has a Win/Loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.78 this season. He projects to struggle today, averaging 5.0 innings pitched while allowing 2.3 earned runs. His high hit allowance of 4.3 per game, coupled with 2.1 walks, raises concerns about his effectiveness against a Twins lineup that ranks 16th overall in offense.
On the other hand, Joe Ryan stands out as the 16th best pitcher in MLB with an impressive 2.86 ERA and an 8-3 record. His ability to average 6.5 strikeouts while allowing 2.4 earned runs suggests he has the upper hand in this matchup. However, Ryan’s peripherals indicate he may be due for some regression, as his xFIP is 0.69 points higher than his ERA.
While both teams are ranked poorly in terms of power—Miami sitting 27th in home runs and Minnesota at 12th—the Marlins have the edge in batting average, ranking 10th in the league. This discrepancy could play a pivotal role in the game. Given the circumstances, the Marlins’ offense must capitalize on Ryan’s flyball tendencies to turn the tide in their favor. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, bettors should keep a close eye on how these factors unfold.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)Joe Ryan is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #25 HR venue in MLB in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Willi Castro – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Willi Castro is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 57% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Today, Byron Buxton is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 42.1% rate (99th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Miami Marlins Insights
- Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Edward Cabrera’s change-up rate has decreased by 9.4% from last season to this one (33.2% to 23.8%) .Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Kyle Stowers has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96-mph average in the last two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.5-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Miami Marlins have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Miami Marlins – Run Line +1.5 (-145)The Miami Marlins have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 63 games (+11.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+125)The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 61 games (+5.95 Units / 8% ROI)
- Christian Vazquez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-170/+130)Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.85 Units / 87% ROI)