Discover the Betting Trends for Rays vs Guardians Game – Tuesday, August 26, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 26, 2025, both teams find themselves in a tight race, with the Guardians holding a record of 64-66 and the Rays slightly trailing at 64-67. This matchup is crucial as both teams are looking to gain momentum in a season that has been largely average for them. In their previous encounter, the Guardians edged out the Rays, setting the stage for an exciting rematch.

Cleveland is projected to start Parker Messick, who has had a remarkable ERA of 1.35 in his lone start this season, but his xFIP of 2.45 suggests that he may have been a bit fortunate. Messick’s low walk rate (3.9 BB%) could be tested against a Rays offense that ranks 6th in the league for least walks. While he projects to pitch an average of 5.0 innings today, he is expected to allow 2.3 earned runs, which is above average.

On the other side, Tampa Bay will counter with Shane Baz, who has had a more extensive season with 25 starts and a less impressive ERA of 5.22. However, his xFIP of 3.91 indicates he has been unlucky, and projections suggest he could perform better moving forward. Baz is also projected to allow 2.3 earned runs but is expected to pitch slightly longer at 5.4 innings.

Offensively, the Guardians rank 29th in MLB, struggling particularly with a team batting average that sits at the bottom of the league. In contrast, the Rays boast a 15th overall ranking in offense, highlighted by their strong batting average of 8th in the league. With the Guardians’ moneyline set at -120, betting markets view this as a close contest, but the projections lean slightly in favor of the Guardians, who may be poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)
  Throwing 92.2 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Shane Baz ranks in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Chandler Simpson is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The Tampa Bay Rays have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Brandon Lowe, Christopher Morel, Everson Pereira, Carson Williams).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Parker Messick – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  With 6 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Parker Messick will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• C.J. Kayfus – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Collin Kayfus is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Cleveland’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the league: #30 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 43 of their last 71 games (+10.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 63 of their last 111 games (+9.20 Units / 7% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+135/-180)
  Chandler Simpson has hit the Stolen Bases Under in 20 of his last 25 away games (+9.65 Units / 19% ROI)