Discover the Betting Trends for Marlins vs Reds Game – Thursday, July 10, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will look to build on their recent victory over the Miami Marlins, having secured a 7-2 win in their last matchup. Scheduled for July 10, 2025, at Great American Ball Park, this game marks the fourth in a series that has seen the Reds striving for playoff positioning, currently sitting at 47-46 on the season. On the other hand, the Marlins are struggling with a record of 42-49, showcasing a below-average performance.

Projected to take the mound for the Reds is Nick Lodolo, a left-handed pitcher ranked as the 79th best starter in MLB, according to advanced stats. Lodolo has been solid with a 3.58 ERA, but his 4.13 xERA suggests he may have had some good fortune this year. He’ll aim to pitch around 5.8 innings today, projected to allow 2.7 earned runs. While his strikeout rate is average at 5.7 per game, he has struggled with hits allowed, projected to give up 5.7.

Cal Quantrill, the Marlins’ right-handed starter, has had a rocky season, currently holding a 5.40 ERA. His projections indicate a challenging outing, expected to pitch just 4.7 innings and give up 3.2 earned runs. While his strikeout projection is low at 3.7, his xFIP of 4.43 hints that he has been somewhat unlucky, potentially leading to better days ahead.

Offensively, the Reds rank 15th best in MLB while the Marlins sit at 20th. Cincinnati’s best hitter is performing well, boasting a .277 batting average and 0.837 OPS, while Miami’s top player has recorded a .279 average, showing some consistency. The Game Total is set at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting the expectations for a competitive matchup. With the Reds favored at -160, there’s potential for them to exceed their implied team total of 4.98 runs today.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Cal Quantrill’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1-mph decrease from last year’s 93.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nick Fortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Nick Fortes has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 87.3-mph average to last year’s 84.1-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Derek Hill has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)
  Nick Lodolo is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all stadiums — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Bats such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cal Quantrill who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 83 games (+8.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+140)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 away games (+14.35 Units / 102% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+12.65 Units / 67% ROI)