Discover the Betting Trends for Marlins vs Reds Game – Thursday, July 10, 2025

Miami Marlins

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Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds will host the Miami Marlins on July 10, 2025, at Great American Ball Park for the fourth game of their series. The Reds currently sit at 47-46, having an average season, while the Marlins trail with a 42-49 record, reflecting a below-average performance. Both teams are looking to gain momentum, especially after the Reds secured a win in their last game against the Marlins, which adds a layer of confidence as they face off again.

Projected starters Nick Lodolo and Cal Quantrill present a stark contrast in form. Lodolo, a left-handed pitcher ranked 80th among MLB starters, has a respectable ERA of 3.58 this season. However, his peripheral stats suggest he may have been a bit lucky, as his xERA and FIP are higher than his actual ERA. He projects to pitch around 5.8 innings, allowing approximately 2.8 earned runs, which is typical for him this season.

On the other hand, Quantrill, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled significantly with a 5.40 ERA and a poor win-loss record of 3-7. His projections indicate he might pitch only 4.6 innings while allowing around 3.2 earned runs, which could further burden a Marlins bullpen ranked 25th overall. The Reds’ bullpen, by contrast, ranks 15th, positioning them more favorably as the game progresses.

Offensively, the Reds rank 15th in MLB, while the Marlins sit slightly lower at 17th. The Reds are projected to score an impressive 5.14 runs, while the Marlins’ implied team total of 3.86 runs suggests they may struggle to keep pace. With the Reds’ best hitter showing solid form recently, hitting .318 over the last week, they appear well-equipped to capitalize on the Marlins’ weaknesses.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Cal Quantrill’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1-mph decrease from last year’s 93.8-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Connor Norby’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 95.2-mph average last season has lowered to 93.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under Total Bases
  Derek Hill has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  Nick Lodolo is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.8% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue among all stadiums — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Bats such as Elly De La Cruz with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Cal Quantrill who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Cincinnati Reds have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Matt McLain).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 83 games (+8.65 Units / 9% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+145)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 away games (+14.35 Units / 102% ROI)
• Agustin Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Agustin Ramirez has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 away games (+12.65 Units / 67% ROI)