San Francisco Giants
Colorado Rockies
(-110/-110)+125
As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on September 1, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standings in the National League West. Currently, the Rockies sit at 39-98, enduring a dismal season, while the Giants are slightly above .500 at 68-69. The Rockies have been eliminated from division contention but are still in the hunt for a Wild Card spot. In their previous matchup, the Giants took a strong 7-3 win over the Rockies, further deepening Colorado’s struggles.
On the pitching front, both teams are set to start right-handed pitchers, with Chase Dollander projected for the Rockies and Kai-Wei Teng for the Giants. Dollander has not had the season he hoped for, owning a 2-11 record and a troubling ERA of 6.55. However, advanced projections suggest he may be due for some positive regression, as his xFIP stands at 4.83, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky. He faces a Giants lineup that has been patient at the plate, ranking 6th in MLB walks this season, which could exploit Dollander’s high walk rate of 11.0%.
Meanwhile, Teng has also struggled, holding an ERA of 8.78 with only a 1-3 record in just four starts. His low strikeout rate of 18.5% could work in his favor against a Rockies lineup that ranks 2nd in MLB for strikeouts. However, Teng’s control issues could allow Colorado’s hitters to become more aggressive.
The game total is set at 11.5 runs, highlighting expectations for a high-scoring contest. With the Rockies’ offense ranking 27th overall and the Giants’ offense at 25th, both teams are looking to break through offensively. Despite their struggles, the Giants enter as favorites with a moneyline of -140, while the Rockies are positioned as underdogs at +120. A win for Colorado could provide a much-needed boost in a season marked by disappointment.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Kai-Wei Teng – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)Kai-Wei Teng’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2640 rpm) has been quite a bit higher than than his seasonal rate (2547 rpm).Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
- Casey Schmitt – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Casey Schmitt has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.7-mph dropping to 82.1-mph over the last week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that the San Francisco Giants will score 6.53 runs on average in this game: the most of all teams playing today.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Chase Dollander – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-140/+110)Tallying 13.9 outs per outing this year on average, Chase Dollander places in the 7th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Mickey Moniak is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of San Francisco (#3-worst of all teams on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .315 overall projected rate.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
Betting Trends
- Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 78 of their last 136 games (+13.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 17 away games (+8.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- Tyler Freeman – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-145)Tyler Freeman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 34% ROI)