Discover the Betting Trends for Dodgers vs Cardinals Game – Sunday, August 18, 2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 18, 2024, both teams are looking to make an impact in this pivotal series. St. Louis, currently sitting at 61-62, is having an average season and is not in contention for the division title. Conversely, Los Angeles boasts a strong 72-52 record, solidifying their status as one of the league’s elite teams. In their last matchup on August 17, the Cardinals pulled off a 5-2 victory against the Dodgers, demonstrating their capability to compete against a top-tier opponent.

On the mound, the Cardinals are set to start Sonny Gray, who is ranked 22nd among starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gray has had a decent year with an 11-7 record and a 3.93 ERA, though his 2.73 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit unlucky. Notably, he’s projected to allow an average of 2.3 earned runs today, which reflects his ability to minimize damage.

The Dodgers will counter with Clayton Kershaw, who despite a lower ranking at 27th, has a strong 3.50 ERA in his limited four starts this season. Kershaw pitched well in his last game, showcasing his ability to dominate with a low earned run total.

Offensively, the Cardinals are struggling, ranked 20th overall, while the Dodgers are thriving at 5th, thanks in large part to Shohei Ohtani’s outstanding performance. Ohtani leads the Dodgers with 38 home runs and a robust 0.990 OPS.

As both teams look to capitalize on their strengths, the projections suggest this game will be closely contested, with each team expected to score around 4.00 runs. With the Cardinals aiming to carry momentum from their recent victory and the Dodgers striving to bounce back, fans can anticipate an engaging matchup at Busch Stadium.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-105)
  Among every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Gavin Lux has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Compared to their .345 overall projected rate, the .317 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Los Angeles Dodgers projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup a fair amount missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-205/+160)
  Tallying 17.8 outs per game per started this year on average, Sonny Gray falls in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 89.7-mph figure last year has fallen to 87.5-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• St. Louis Cardinals bats jointly grade out 28th- in MLB for power this year when assessing with their 6.8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games at home (+5.30 Units / 24% ROI)
• Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.45 Units / 41% ROI)
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Gavin Lux has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+12.30 Units / 30% ROI)