Discover the Betting Trends for D-Backs vs White Sox Game – Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Chicago White Sox

The Arizona Diamondbacks will face the Chicago White Sox on June 24, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field, marking the second game in their series. After a dominant 10-0 victory the previous day, the Diamondbacks look to continue their winning momentum against a struggling White Sox team that has struggled this season, currently holding a record of 25-54.

On the mound, the White Sox will send Mike Vasil to the hill. Although his 2.94 ERA is impressive, advanced stats indicate he may have been fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 5.01. Vasil has had a rocky start to June, with his last outing on June 19 resulting in an abbreviated performance where he surrendered 6 earned runs in just 4 innings. His low strikeout rate of 17.8% could pose challenges against the Diamondbacks’ potent offense, which ranks 3rd in MLB and has demonstrated significant power this season.

Ryne Nelson will take the mound for Arizona, boasting a solid 3.88 ERA. He pitched effectively in his last start on June 19, going six innings while allowing just 1 earned run. Despite being a low-strikeout pitcher himself, he faces a White Sox offense that has struggled significantly, ranking 30th in MLB and exhibiting a high strikeout rate.

Given the matchup, the Diamondbacks’ favorable offensive metrics and Nelson’s recent form position them as the favorites in this contest. The projections suggest that they should capitalize on the White Sox’s weaknesses, potentially leading to a solid outing from Nelson as he aims to maintain his team’s winning ways.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Ryne Nelson’s 94.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 78th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under Total Bases
  Eugenio Suarez has a ton of pop (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Mike Vasil has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Arizona Diamondbacks in this game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .317, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .338 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Mike Vasil is an extreme groundball pitcher (44.5% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Guaranteed Rate Field — the #3 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Josh Rojas – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Josh Rojas’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.2-mph mark last season has fallen off to 84.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 28 games at home (+8.35 Units / 24% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 40 of their last 62 games (+16.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 46% ROI)