
Chicago Cubs

Detroit Tigers
(-110/-110)-135
On June 8, 2025, the Detroit Tigers host the Chicago Cubs in an exciting Interleague matchup at Comerica Park. The previous day, the Tigers faced a tough loss to the Cubs, falling 6-1. Both teams have been playing exceptionally well this season, with the Tigers boasting a record of 42-24 and the Cubs just behind at 40-24.
Jack Flaherty is set to take the mound for Detroit, bringing a modest Win/Loss record of 4-6 despite an impressive ERA of 3.72. Although he ranks as the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, he does face challenges today—particularly as a high-flyball pitcher (41 FB% this year) against a potent Cubs offense, which has hit 88 home runs this season, ranking 5th overall. Flaherty’s projection for average innings pitched is 5.5, but he must be careful; he’s projected to allow 4.9 hits and 1.8 walks today, a concern when facing a lineup that excels at capitalizing on mistakes.
Cade Horton will start for the Cubs, and while he remains undefeated with a record of 3-0, his 4.21 ERA indicates that he is a below-average pitcher by many measures. His projections suggest he’ll pitch only 4.7 innings, which could be problematic given the Cubs’ bullpen is ranked 26th overall in MLB. The match-up favors Detroit’s offense, which ranks 9th in MLB, particularly as Horton struggles with a low strikeout rate of 17.6 K%, facing a Tigers team that has the 4th most strikeouts overall.
With the Tigers holding a slight edge in the betting lines, they carry an implied team total of 4.50 runs. Given their strong offense and the Cubs’ inconsistent pitching depth, this game has the potential for a competitive but crucial win for Detroit as they continue their push toward the season’s late stages.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Cade Horton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)Out of all SPs, Cade Horton’s fastball spin rate of 2504 rpm ranks in the 92nd percentile this year.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)Ian Happ has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.2-mph dropping to 81.7-mph in the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Seiya Suzuki hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42.5% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 2nd-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)Jack Flaherty is an extreme flyball pitcher (34% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #23 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Javier Baez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)Extreme groundball hitters like Javier Baez tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Cade Horton.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- The Detroit Tigers have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Dillon Dingler).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+12.63 Units / 17% ROI)
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+115)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 18 of their last 25 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+530/-950)Pete Crow-Armstrong has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 away games (+8.30 Units / 104% ROI)