Kansas City Royals
Houston Astros
(+105/-125)-130
As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Kansas City Royals on August 31, 2024, both teams are looking to capitalize on their recent performances. The Astros currently sit at 73-62, enjoying an above-average season, while the Royals lead slightly with a record of 75-61, marking a solid campaign. In their previous matchup on August 30, the Astros edged out the Royals 3-2, continuing their momentum.
On the mound, the Astros are projected to start Yusei Kikuchi, who has had a challenging season with a 6-9 record and a 4.39 ERA. However, his 3.39 xFIP suggests he might be due for better luck moving forward. Kikuchi faces a Royals lineup that has been known for their low strikeout rate, which could diminish his effectiveness as a high-strikeout pitcher with a 27.1 K%. Conversely, Cole Ragans is set to take the hill for Kansas City. Ragans has been exceptional this year, holding a 10-8 record and a stellar 3.28 ERA, ranking him 15th among MLB starters.
In terms of offensive production, the Astros boast the 2nd best team batting average in MLB, while the Royals rank 11th. Houston’s Yordan Alvarez has been a driving force, leading the team with a .312 batting average and 28 home runs. Meanwhile, Bobby Witt Jr. has emerged as a key player for Kansas City, contributing significantly with a .341 average and 28 home runs.
Despite being favored with a moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%, the projections suggest this will be a closely contested game. With both teams showcasing solid pitching and potent lineups, fans can expect an exciting showdown at Minute Maid Park.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Cole Ragans – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-190/+145)Cole Ragans has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 7.8 more adjusted pitches-per-start than average.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last season’s 90.7-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Kansas City Royals hitters as a group have been among the best in baseball this year (4th-) when it comes to their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Houston Astros Insights
- Yusei Kikuchi – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)Yusei Kikuchi’s slider percentage has decreased by 5.7% from last season to this one (26% to 20.3%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Yordan Alvarez is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Kansas City (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+105/-125)The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 74 of their last 129 games (+16.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Run Line +1.5 (-200)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 76 of their last 134 games (+9.49 Units / 5% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 23 games at home (+14.90 Units / 51% ROI)