Discover Odds and Betting Trends for White Sox vs Twins – 4/24/25

Chicago White Sox

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins and the Chicago White Sox meet again on April 24, 2025, following yesterday’s contest where the Twins secured a 6-3 victory. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Twins sitting at 9-15 and the White Sox at 5-19. The Twins, projected to start Chris Paddack, come into this game as substantial favorites, bolstered by the fact that they have the 11th best bullpen in MLB, while the White Sox rank 27th.

Chris Paddack, despite his 0-2 record and a troubling ERA of 7.27, showed flashes of promise in his last start on April 18, where he pitched 5 innings, allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 6 batters. His projections for today suggest he will pitch approximately 5.4 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs, indicating he may be due for a bounce-back performance. The projections suggest he is likely to strike out 5.5 batters, which could be crucial against a White Sox lineup that has underperformed.

On the other hand, Shane Smith, the White Sox’s starter, has had a decent start to the season with an ERA of 2.82, though his 4.98 xFIP signals potential regression. Smith is expected to pitch around 4.7 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, but he has struggled with strikeouts, projecting only 4.3 today. The Twins offense, ranked 26th in MLB, has not been explosive, but they will look to capitalize on Smith’s vulnerabilities.

With the Twins highly favored at a moneyline of -220 and an implied team total of 4.43 runs, they have a significant edge in this matchup. The White Sox, projected to score only 3.07 runs, face a tough challenge in turning their season around against a division rival.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Shane Smith has been granted less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -15.4 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joshua Palacios can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Paddack has relied on his secondary offerings 9.8% less often this season (47.3%) than he did last season (57.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Carlos Correa – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Carlos Correa has been unlucky this year, putting up a .229 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .339 — a .110 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• DaShawn Keirsey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  When it comes to his overall offensive skill, DaShawn Keirsey Jr. ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)
• Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Michael A. Taylor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.95 Units / 88% ROI)