Discover Odds and Betting Trends for White Sox vs Twins – 4/24/25

Chicago White Sox

@

Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on April 24, 2025, both teams are struggling significantly this season. The Twins sit at 9-15, while the White Sox are even worse at 5-19. In their previous matchup, the Twins defeated the White Sox, continuing their push to improve from a disappointing start.

On the mound, the Twins will send Chris Paddack to the hill, who has been less than stellar this year with an 0-2 record and a troubling 7.27 ERA. However, projections indicate that Paddack may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 4.78 suggests he could be due for a turnaround. He averages 5.4 innings pitched and projects to allow 2.3 earned runs, which is a positive sign against a struggling White Sox offense that ranks last in MLB.

Shane Smith will take the mound for the White Sox, sporting an impressive 2.82 ERA despite a 0-1 record. However, his xFIP of 4.99 suggests that he might not be able to sustain this level of performance. Smith projects to pitch only 4.9 innings, which could be a disadvantage against a Twins lineup ranked 28th in offense but still capable of capitalizing on a pitcher who struggles to go deep into games.

With the Twins’ bullpen ranked 11th in MLB, they may have an edge late in the game, especially against a White Sox bullpen that ranks 26th. The Twins are favored with a moneyline of -225 and an implied team total of 4.77 runs, while the White Sox are underdogs at +195, with a low implied total of 3.23 runs. Overall, this matchup sets the stage for a potential Twins victory as they look to build on their recent success.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Compared to the average starter, Shane Smith has been granted less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -15.8 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Josh Palacios – Over/Under Total Bases
  The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joshua Palacios can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 4th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Chris Paddack has relied on his secondary offerings 9.8% less often this season (47.3%) than he did last season (57.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball bats like Byron Buxton are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Smith.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s game, Harrison Bader is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39% rate (88th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-245)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 17 games (+5.40 Units / 25% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+120/-150)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.00 Units / 31% ROI)