Discover Odds and Betting Trends for Blue Jays vs Cardinals – 6/11/25

Toronto Blue Jays

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St. Louis Cardinals

On June 11, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Busch Stadium for the third game of their interleague series. The Cardinals are looking to bounce back after a tough 10-9 loss to the Blue Jays the previous day, while the Blue Jays are riding a wave of momentum following that victory.

Currently, the Cardinals sit at 36-31, enjoying an above-average season, while the Blue Jays boast a slightly better 37-30 record and are having a good season. The Cardinals’ offense ranks 12th in MLB, bolstered by a strong team batting average that places them 4th overall. However, they struggle with power, ranking 23rd in home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 11th, with a solid batting average of 8th, but they, too, are lacking in power with a 16th place ranking in home runs.

On the mound, the Cardinals are projected to start Matthew Liberatore, who has had a rocky season. Liberatore’s 3-5 record and 3.82 ERA suggest he has been unlucky, as indicated by his 3.04 FIP, which is significantly lower than his ERA. However, he struggled in his last start, allowing 7 earned runs in just 4 innings. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays will counter with Eric Lauer, who has an impressive 2.08 ERA but is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB based on advanced metrics. Lauer’s projections indicate he may not sustain this level of performance, as his 4.37 xFIP suggests he has benefited from some good fortune.

With the Cardinals holding a moneyline of -135 and an implied team total of 4.50 runs, oddsmakers see them as the favorites in this matchup. The projections suggest that despite the recent loss, the Cardinals have the potential to turn things around against a Blue Jays team that may not be as strong as it appears.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Spencer Turnbull – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Spencer Turnbull has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, notching a 9.61 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.46 — a 2.15 K/9 discrepancy.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.287) provides evidence that Tyler Heineman has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season with his .405 actual wOBA.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Alejandro Kirk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Alejandro Kirk has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Out of all SPs, Matthew Liberatore’s fastball spin rate of 2072 rpm ranks in the 8th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Nolan Arenado is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the St. Louis Cardinals with a 20.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+8.42 Units / 37% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+120)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.89 Units / 29% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+130/-170)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.45 Units / 24% ROI)