Discover Current Player Trends for Tigers vs Orioles – Saturday September 21, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles host the Detroit Tigers on September 21, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, both teams find themselves in intriguing positions. The Orioles, boasting an 86-68 record, are enjoying a strong season and are in the thick of the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Tigers, with an 80-74 record, are having an above-average season and are keen on making a late push for a Wild Card spot. In the first game of this series, the Orioles managed to secure a win, setting the stage for a potentially pivotal matchup.

Cade Povich takes the mound for Baltimore, entering the game with a challenging 2-9 record and a 5.74 ERA this season. Despite his struggles, his 5.04 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. On the flip side, Detroit’s Reese Olson, with a 4-8 record and a strong 3.50 ERA, ranks as the 51st best starting pitcher in MLB, demonstrating his capability to stifle offenses.

The Orioles’ offense, ranked 6th best overall, has been a powerhouse, leading the league in home runs. This might challenge Olson, who is known for inducing ground balls (51% GB rate), potentially neutralizing some of Baltimore’s aerial threats. Contrastingly, the Tigers’ offense ranks 24th, struggling across multiple categories, which might play to Povich’s advantage despite his current form.

Baltimore’s bullpen, ranked 19th, is average, while Detroit’s bullpen, ranked 10th, provides a solid backbone for the Tigers. With THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, giving the Orioles a 56% chance to win, slightly above their implied probability, Baltimore holds a slight edge. However, with both teams in pursuit of crucial victories, this American League matchup promises to be a tightly contested affair.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Reese Olson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Reese Olson’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 starts (2308 rpm) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (2225 rpm).
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Dillon Dingler – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Dillon Dingler has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .168 mark is significantly deflated relative to his .235 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Cade Povich – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Cade Povich has averaged 14.8 outs per GS this year, ranking in the 18th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Ryan O’Hearn is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 54 of their last 89 games (+15.25 Units / 15% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.5 (-185)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 70 games (+19.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+10.90 Units / 19% ROI)