Discover Current Player Trends for Reds vs Brewers – Sunday August 11, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers take on the Cincinnati Reds at American Family Field on August 11, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their standings in a tight National League Central. The Brewers currently sit at 67-49, enjoying a strong season, while the Reds are lagging behind at 56-61, having struggled for consistency.

In their previous matchup yesterday, the Brewers edged the Reds with a narrow 1-0 victory, which showcased the Brewers’ solid pitching and defense. D.L. Hall is slated to start for Milwaukee, but he has had a rough season, recording an ERA of 7.71 and a win-loss record of 0-1 over just four starts. While Hall’s 5.64 xFIP suggests he may bounce back, his low strikeout rate of 15.5 K% this year could pose challenges against a Reds offense that strikes out frequently, ranking 5th in the league.

On the mound for Cincinnati, Nick Lodolo represents a more reliable option. Lodolo has a better record at 9-4 and a solid ERA of 3.93. His last outing on August 6 was impressive, going six innings with only two earned runs and striking out seven batters. The projections indicate that Lodolo will pitch an average of 5.4 innings today, while allowing a manageable 2.7 earned runs.

The Brewers boast one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 7th overall, and their ability to score runs is bolstered by talented hitters like Willy Adames. Conversely, the Reds’ offense has struggled, ranking 19th overall. While both teams have shown they can score, the projections lean towards the Brewers, predicting they will score around 4.63 runs in this matchup, partly due to Lodolo’s good control skills limiting walks against a patient Brewers lineup.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Over his last 3 GS, Nick Lodolo has experienced a sizeable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2354 rpm over the entire season to 2251 rpm of late.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+110)
  T.J. Friedl is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Cincinnati Reds offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• D.L. Hall – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  DL Hall has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 19 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Sal Frelick’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 85.5-mph figure last year has fallen to 83.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Milwaukee Brewers bats as a group place 24th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 7.2% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 109 games (+15.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games (+7.05 Units / 7% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1100/-5000)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+17.50 Units / 175% ROI)