Discover Current Player Trends for Phillies vs Mariners – 8/3/24

Philadelphia Phillies

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Seattle Mariners

On August 3, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will host the Philadelphia Phillies for the second game of their interleague series at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners enter this matchup with a record of 58-53, while the Phillies boast a strong 65-44 record. The Mariners are having an above-average season, but their offensive struggles are evident; they rank 26th in MLB overall and dead last in team batting average. In contrast, the Phillies’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 7th in MLB, highlighted by their powerful lineup that includes Kyle Schwarber, who has hit 22 home runs this season.

In their last game on August 2, the Mariners secured a convincing 10-2 victory over the Phillies, showcasing their potential to score in bunches. Mariners’ pitcher Bryce Miller, who has an ERA of 3.46, is projected to start, but he has been somewhat lucky this season, as indicated by his xFIP of 3.98. Miller’s average projection for this game includes 5.3 innings pitched with 2.5 earned runs allowed. Meanwhile, Orion Kerkering, the Phillies’ starter, has been more effective with an excellent 2.21 ERA and a rank of 32nd among MLB pitchers.

The projections for this matchup favor the Mariners, suggesting they could score an average of 4.66 runs, while the Phillies are projected for 4.52 runs. Given the Mariners’ recent offensive breakout and the fact that they are playing at home, they may have the edge in this close contest. As both teams vie for continued success, this game promises to be a crucial one, especially for the Mariners as they look to capitalize on their last win.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  J.T. Realmuto is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 95% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Bryce Miller – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Bryce Miller’s 2475-rpm spin rate on his fastball this year is a substantial 116-rpm decrease from last year’s 2591-rpm mark.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.
• Mitch Haniger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Mitch Haniger has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.3-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 90.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Mitch Garver pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 39 games at home (+9.55 Units / 22% ROI)
• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 57 of their last 93 games (+13.80 Units / 11% ROI)
• Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-2000)
  Victor Robles has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 16 games (+12.40 Units / 77% ROI)