Washington Nationals
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-105/-115)-125
On April 15, 2025, the Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Washington Nationals at PNC Park for the second game of their series. Both teams have struggled mightily this season, with the Pirates holding a 6-11 record and the Nationals at 6-10. The advanced-stat Power Rankings reflect this underperformance, ranking the Pirates’ offense as the 30th best and the Nationals’ offense as the 9th best in MLB. Despite the Nationals being in poor form, recent trends suggest they might have an edge in this matchup.
Projected starters Mitch Keller and Jake Irvin are both right-handed pitchers, but their season performances paint different pictures. Keller, with a 4.24 ERA, is not as bad as his 179th ranking among MLB starters suggests. His 5.73 xERA indicates he could be due for a downturn, but his 2.75 FIP shows he might have been unlucky and could perform better today. In contrast, Irvin’s 5.63 ERA ranks him among the worst in baseball. He also faces a Pirates offense that strikes out frequently, allowing him to capitalize on their weaknesses.
Offensively, the Nationals are showing signs of life, with their best hitter boasting a 1.245 OPS in the last week and contributing significantly in terms of runs and RBIs. In contrast, the Pirates’ best hitter has struggled to make a similar impact. The current game total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating a potentially competitive matchup, but Pittsburgh’s poor batting average and weak overall offensive ranking could hinder their ability to score.
Given the projections and the fact that the Pirates hold a moneyline of -130, suggesting a close contest, this game promises to be intriguing for bettors looking to capitalize on the current momentum of the Nationals against an underperforming Pirates squad.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)Jake Irvin has compiled a colossal 5.63 ERA over his previous 3 outings.Explain: A pitcher who has struggled in his most recent outings may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
- James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)James Wood has made sizeable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 10.7% rate last year to 27.3% this season.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+105)The Washington Nationals projected lineup ranks as the 4th-weakest of the day in terms of overall hitting skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)Mitch Keller is an extreme flyball pitcher (31.3% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #27 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Oneil Cruz’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 90.3-mph seasonal figure has fallen off to 72.8-mph in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen projects as the 5th-worst out of all the teams in the game.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Mitch Keller – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-155/+120)Mitch Keller has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.60 Units / 18% ROI)