Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-135
As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the Arizona Diamondbacks on September 26, 2025, this National League West matchup carries significant weight for the Padres, who are aiming to solidify their position in the playoff race. Currently with an 87-72 record, San Diego is enjoying an above-average season, while Arizona, at 80-79, holds a more modest position as they seek to finish the year strong.
In their last game, the Padres faced a setback, losing 3-1, while the Diamondbacks were also down, suffering an 8-0 defeat. The Padres are projected to start Yu Darvish, who has struggled this season, posting a 5.51 ERA and a 4-5 record over 14 starts. However, his 4.05 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky, and he could bounce back. Darvish is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings today and allow roughly 2.3 earned runs, but he also projects to allow 1.5 walks, which could be a point of concern.
On the other side, Zac Gallen takes the mound for Arizona. With a 4.70 ERA and a 13-14 record from 32 starts, Gallen is considered an above-average pitcher. His recent performance is encouraging as he pitched 7 innings with 3 earned runs, 9 strikeouts, and just 4 hits in his last start.
San Diego’s offense ranks 16th overall but shines in batting average, sitting 8th in the league. They have struggled with home runs, ranking 28th, which may hinder their offensive production against a competent Diamondbacks bullpen, currently ranked 23rd. Meanwhile, Arizona boasts the 5th-best offense in MLB, making this matchup intriguing as the Padres look to capitalize on their home advantage while the Diamondbacks aim to leverage their hitting prowess.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+115)The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the best out of every team playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)James McCann has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 95.1-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal 92.7-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)James McCann hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Yu Darvish – Over/Under Pitching OutsCompared to the average starter, Yu Darvish has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -13.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)When it comes to his home runs, Luis Arraez has experienced some positive variance this year. His 7.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 0.0.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.7% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 117 games (+13.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 72 of their last 141 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- Jackson Merrill – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)Jackson Merrill has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.20 Units / 60% ROI)