Arizona Diamondbacks
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-145
The San Diego Padres will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park on September 26, 2025, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup in the National League West. With the Padres holding a record of 87-72, they are enjoying an above-average season, while the Diamondbacks sit at 80-79, reflecting an average performance. The stakes are high for San Diego as they aim to solidify their position for a Wild Card spot.
In their last outing, the Padres showcased their offensive prowess, recording a strong performance that saw their best hitter contribute significantly. They will look to build on that momentum as they face off against Zac Gallen, who is projected to start for Arizona. Gallen, ranked as the 83rd best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a decent season with a 4.70 ERA and a 13-14 record. However, his 4.06 xFIP suggests he may be due for better results.
On the mound for the Padres is Yu Darvish, who has had a tumultuous year with a 5.51 ERA and a 4-5 record across 14 starts. Despite his struggles, the projections indicate that he could turn things around, as his xFIP of 4.05 suggests he has been unlucky this season. Darvish’s ability to pitch five innings while limiting earned runs will be crucial, especially as he faces a strong Diamondbacks offense ranked 5th in MLB.
San Diego’s bullpen ranks 2nd, indicating a significant advantage in late-game situations. With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs, the Padres are favored with a moneyline of -150, reflecting their potential to secure a victory against Arizona’s average bullpen ranked 18th. The matchup presents a compelling narrative, as the Padres aim to leverage their strong pitching and recent offensive success to take an early lead in this series.
Arizona Diamondbacks Insights
- Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+125)The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the best out of every team playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Corbin Carroll has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 91.8-mph average to last year’s 89.2-mph figure.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)In today’s matchup, Gabriel Moreno is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.6% rate (97th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Yu Darvish – Over/Under Pitching OutsCompared to the average starter, Yu Darvish has been granted a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an -13.7 fewer adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)When it comes to his home runs, Luis Arraez has experienced some positive variance this year. His 7.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 0.0.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 17.7% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 117 games (+13.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 72 of their last 141 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.05 Units / 26% ROI)