Discover Current Player Trends for Blue Jays vs Tigers – 7/26/25

Toronto Blue Jays

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Detroit Tigers

On July 26, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Tigers are currently holding a solid record of 60-45, while the Blue Jays are slightly ahead at 62-42. Both teams are in playoff contention, making this game significant as they battle for positioning.

In their previous game, the Tigers fell to the Blue Jays with a score of 6-2, which might add a little extra urgency for Detroit to bounce back in front of their home crowd. Tarik Skubal, the Tigers’ elite left-handed pitcher, is projected to take the mound. Skubal, who is ranked as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, boasts an impressive 10-3 record and a stellar 2.19 ERA this season. His last outing was exceptional, where he pitched 7 innings, allowing only 1 earned run while striking out 11 batters.

In contrast, Kevin Gausman will start for the Blue Jays. Gausman has had an inconsistent season, sitting below average in the Power Rankings. He carries a 7-7 record and a 4.01 ERA, which reflects his struggles compared to Skubal. While Gausman had a decent start in his last game, pitching 7 innings with 1 earned run, he has been prone to allowing runs, and facing a high-powered Tigers offense could spell trouble.

The Tigers rank 10th in MLB in offense, while the Blue Jays come in at 6th. Both lineups have shown power, with Detroit ranking 9th in home runs. However, the projections suggest the Tigers have the upper hand today, particularly with Skubal’s ability to dominate opposing hitters. The current Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, indicating a potential pitcher’s duel. With the Tigers favored at a moneyline of -175, this could be a pivotal moment in their season as they look to even the series against a competitive Blue Jays squad.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+165)
  In his previous game started, Kevin Gausman performed well and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Addison Barger has been lucky this year, posting a .356 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .034 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Generating 19.2 outs per GS this year on average, Tarik Skubal places him the 99th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Over the past two weeks, Gleyber Torres’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In today’s matchup, Matt Vierling is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.9% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games at home (+9.58 Units / 19% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+150)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 71 games (+18.19 Units / 20% ROI)
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Zach McKinstry has hit the Total Bases Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.60 Units / 80% ROI)