Discover Current Player Trends for Blue Jays vs Tigers – 7/26/25

Toronto Blue Jays

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Detroit Tigers

On July 26, 2025, the Detroit Tigers will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Comerica Park in a crucial American League matchup. Both teams are in solid standing, with the Tigers holding a record of 60-45 and the Blue Jays at 62-42. The Tigers are having a good season, but the Blue Jays have been even more impressive, earning a great season label. This game marks the third in the series between these two squads, with both vying for critical victories as the regular season continues.

In their most recent outing, the Tigers faced off against the Blue Jays, and while specifics on that game are not noted, the challenges they faced highlight the competitiveness of this series. Tarik Skubal is projected to take the mound for the Tigers, boasting a stellar 2.19 ERA and a dominant 34.0% strikeout rate, making him the top-ranked starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, he faces a tricky matchup against a Blue Jays offense that has the lowest strikeout rate in the league.

Kevin Gausman will counter for the Blue Jays, carrying a 4.01 ERA and a below-average ranking this season. While he’s been steady enough, the projections suggest he might struggle against the Tigers’ lineup, which ranks 9th overall in MLB offense. The Tigers are currently favored with a moneyline of -190, implying a win probability of around 63%, suggesting a potential edge that bettors should consider despite the projections favoring a lower team total for the Blue Jays.

As the game total sits at a low 7.0 runs, it will be interesting to see if the Tigers can capitalize on their offensive strength and Skubal’s elite pitching, potentially swinging the game in their favor.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+175)
  In his previous game started, Kevin Gausman performed well and gave up 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Addison Barger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Addison Barger has been lucky this year, posting a .356 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .322 — a .034 discrepancy.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Toronto Blue Jays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Toronto Blue Jays’ bullpen profiles as the 3rd-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Generating 19.2 outs per GS this year on average, Tarik Skubal places him the 99th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Over the past two weeks, Gleyber Torres’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.4% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In today’s matchup, Spencer Torkelson is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.2% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-165/+130)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 27 of their last 44 games at home (+9.58 Units / 19% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (+165)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 46 of their last 71 games (+18.19 Units / 20% ROI)
• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 1.5 Walks Allowed (-135/+105)
  Kevin Gausman has hit the Walks Allowed Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.60 Units / 59% ROI)