Discover Current Player Trends for Astros vs Mariners – Sunday April 12, 2026

Houston Astros

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Seattle Mariners

Houston Astros Insights

• Cody Bolton – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Cody Bolton is projected to throw 71 pitches today by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least on the slate today.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jeremy Pena – Over/Under Total Bases
  This season, Jeremy Pena’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 7.8% last year to just 0% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under Total Bases
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 9th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Logan Gilbert’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (69.7% vs. 62.3% last season) should work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under Total Bases
  Brendan Donovan has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 75.2-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Logan Gilbert – Over/Under Strikeouts
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 40 games at home (+8.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 33% ROI)