Chicago White Sox
Minnesota Twins
(-120/+100)-145
As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face off against the Chicago White Sox on September 4, 2025, both teams find themselves in disappointing seasons, with the Twins sitting at 62-77 and the White Sox at 52-88. This matchup marks the fourth game in their series, and the Twins will be looking to bounce back after a narrow 4-3 loss in their last outing.
On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Taj Bradley, who has had an inconsistent year with a 6-7 record and a 4.82 ERA. However, his 3.87 xERA suggests he has been somewhat unlucky, indicating potential for improvement. In his last start on August 30, Bradley performed well, allowing just one earned run over five innings, striking out six batters. He projects to pitch an average of 5.3 innings today, with 2.1 earned runs and 5.2 strikeouts, which could be advantageous against a struggling White Sox offense that ranks 28th in MLB.
Fraser Ellard, the White Sox’s starter, has had a rough time as well, with a projected average of only 1.7 innings pitched today. His last start on September 1 was abbreviated, going just two innings without allowing any earned runs but issuing three walks. His projections indicate he could allow 0.8 earned runs, but with a low strikeout rate of 1.9, he may struggle against the Twins’ lineup.
While the Twins’ offense ranks 19th overall, they have the potential to capitalize on the White Sox’s deficiencies. The projections suggest the Twins could score around 4.66 runs, making them the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155. Given the White Sox’s poor performance, this matchup could tilt in favor of Minnesota, who will be eager to turn their season around with a win.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+125)Out of every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Chicago White Sox.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Kyle Teel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)Kyle Teel’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 88.8-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 84.7-mph over the last 14 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Taj Bradley – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Taj Bradley will post an average of 16 outs in today’s matchup.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
- James Outman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)James Outman is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best on the slate).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- The Minnesota Twins have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Fitzgerald, Matt Wallner, James Outman).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 58 games (+9.70 Units / 14% ROI)
- Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-170)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 116 games (+14.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+480/-800)Royce Lewis has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+7.10 Units / 142% ROI)