Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for White Sox vs Twins – 9/2/2025

Chicago White Sox

@

Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face off against the Chicago White Sox on September 2, 2025, at Target Field, both teams come into this matchup seeking to change their fortunes. The Twins currently sit with a record of 62-75, while the White Sox have struggled significantly this season, posting a dismal 50-88 record. In their last game, the Twins narrowly lost to the White Sox by a score of 6-5, further complicating their efforts to climb out of the basement of the American League Central.

The Twins will send Simeon Woods Richardson to the mound, who has had an average season with a 4.59 ERA and a 5-4 record across 18 starts. However, recent projections indicate that he may be due for a regression, as his 5.19 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat fortunate this season. In his last outing, Woods Richardson struggled, allowing 5 earned runs in just 4 innings of work, which raises concerns about his ability to go deep into the game. He is projected to pitch around 5.0 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs, but his average of 4.9 hits and 1.6 walks allowed could present opportunities for the White Sox offense.

On the flip side, Davis Martin will take the mound for Chicago. With a 4.03 ERA and a 5-9 record over 21 starts, Martin also has metrics indicating he may not maintain his current level of performance. His last start saw him allow 3 earned runs in 4 innings, which mirrors Woods Richardson’s struggles. The projections suggest he will pitch around 4.8 innings and allow about 3.1 earned runs, making him a target for the Twins’ struggling offense, which ranks 19th overall in MLB.

Despite the Twins’ recent struggles, they are favored to win this matchup with a moneyline of -150, reflecting a belief that their offense may find success against Martin’s inconsistent performance. With a high game total of 9.5 runs, this game could be an opportunity for the Twins to break out offensively, especially with their best hitter recently showing signs of life, boasting a .350 batting average over the past week. The White Sox, on the other hand, rank 28th in MLB for offense, which could hinder their chances against a potentially vulnerable Twins pitching staff.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Davis Martin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Davis Martin has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 13.4% less often this year (58.3%) than he did last year (71.7%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Andrew Benintendi – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Andrew Benintendi has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.8-mph dropping to 82.5-mph in the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – Moneyline (+125)
  The 4th-weakest projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Chicago White Sox.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Simeon Woods Richardson performed well in his previous GS and allowed 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Luke Keaschall has been lucky this year, putting up a .392 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .325 — a .067 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the worst in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 51 of their last 86 games (+9.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-120)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 69 of their last 115 games (+17.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+345/-510)
  Colson Montgomery has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 8 games (+20.45 Units / 256% ROI)