Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for White Sox vs Red Sox – 4/19/2025

Chicago White Sox

@

Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox host the Chicago White Sox at Fenway Park on April 19, 2025, the narrative tilts heavily in favor of the Red Sox, who recently displayed their offensive prowess in a 10-3 victory over the White Sox the day before. This matchup is critical for the struggling White Sox, who sit at the bottom of the American League standings with a dismal 4-15 record.

Garrett Crochet, projected to start for Boston, is currently the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, boasting an impressive ERA of 1.38. While his 3.20 xFIP suggests potential regression, his last outing was a commanding performance, allowing just one earned run over seven innings while striking out 11 batters. The White Sox will counter with Shane Smith, who has not fared well this season, holding a 0-1 record with an ERA of 2.04. However, his 4.22 xFIP indicates that he may also be due for a rough patch, especially against a potent Red Sox lineup that ranks 11th in overall offense.

Boston’s offense has been steady, ranking 9th in batting average and 4th in stolen bases, while the White Sox’s struggles are evident as they sit at 30th for both offensive ranking and batting average. With an implied team total of 5.78 runs for the Red Sox against the White Sox’s 3.22, the projections favor a significant offensive output from Boston.

In this high-stakes game, the Red Sox are substantial betting favorites with a moneyline of -335, indicating a strong chance of extending their winning streak against a White Sox team that has not found their footing. The combination of Crochet’s elite pitching and a struggling White Sox lineup makes this a compelling matchup to watch.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Shane Smith (43.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Boston’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Luis Robert Jr.’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 90-mph EV last year has dropped off to 82.8-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago White Sox’ bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Garrett Crochet’s slider utilization has dropped by 5.1% from last season to this one (9.7% to 4.6%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Extreme groundball bats like Alex Bregman tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Smith.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+3.80 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.45 Units / 18% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+180/-235)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 41% ROI)