Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for White Sox vs Guardians – 4/10/2025

Chicago White Sox

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Cleveland Guardians

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Chicago White Sox on April 10, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling early in the season. The Guardians sit at 5-6, while the White Sox have stumbled to a woeful 2-9 record. Cleveland’s bullpen ranks as the best in MLB, which could play a crucial role in this matchup given both teams’ current trajectories.

In their last game, the Guardians managed to find some offensive rhythm, showcasing their power with three home runs. However, they are still grappling with an average batting average that ranks 22nd in MLB. Chicago’s offense is even worse, ranking 29th overall and 29th in batting average, highlighting their difficulties at the plate this season.

On the mound, Gavin Williams will take the hill for the Guardians. Although he is ranked as the 69th best starting pitcher in MLB—indicating he is above average—his projected performance today suggests he might struggle with walks, allowing an average of 1.8. However, he projects to strike out an average of 5.6 batters, which could be pivotal against a White Sox lineup that ranks 5th least in strikeouts.

Meanwhile, Jonathan Cannon, projected to start for the White Sox, has an impressive ERA of 3.12; however, his 5.53 xFIP indicates that he may not maintain that level of success moving forward. Cannon’s struggles with walks (2.1 on average) may prove detrimental against a Guardians lineup that, while inconsistent, has the potential to capitalize on free passes.

With the Guardians favored heavily with a moneyline of -225 and an implied total of 4.46 runs, this matchup presents a strong opportunity for them to build momentum against a Chicago team that is in dire need of a turnaround. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations of a lower-scoring affair, but the Guardians’ bullpen and pitching prowess could very well dictate the outcome.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Jonathan Cannon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Because flyball hitters hold a substantial edge over groundball pitchers, Jonathan Cannon and his 43.1% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today’s game squaring off against 0 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Andrew Vaughn has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.2-mph average to last season’s 90.3-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen projects as the 2nd-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Gavin Williams has relied on his secondary pitches 11% less often this year (37.6%) than he did last year (48.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Typically, bats like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Jonathan Cannon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.7% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-240)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 54 of their last 86 games at home (+10.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.40 Units / 11% ROI)
• Brooks Baldwin – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+950/-2900)
  Brooks Baldwin has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games (+3.50 Units / 70% ROI)