Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Tigers vs Orioles – 9/22/2024

Detroit Tigers

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Baltimore Orioles

As we approach the final stretch of the season, the Baltimore Orioles and the Detroit Tigers are set to face off in an intriguing American League matchup on September 22, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. With the Orioles sitting at 86-69 and having a strong season, they find themselves in a favorable position. Meanwhile, the Tigers, with a respectable 81-74 record, are having an above-average season as they chase a Wild Card spot.

Baltimore, possessing the 6th-best offense in MLB, brings a powerful lineup that ranks 2nd in team home runs and 9th in batting average. The Orioles’ bats have been on display with Colton Cowser shining over the past week, boasting a .381 average and a 1.171 OPS over his last six games. In contrast, the Tigers’ offensive struggles are evident, ranking 24th in both batting average and home runs. However, Jace Jung has been a bright spot recently, hitting .429 with a 1.000 OPS over the last week.

The pitching matchup sees Albert Suarez taking the mound for Baltimore against Detroit’s Keider Montero. Despite being rated as one of the lower-tier starters by advanced Power Rankings, Suarez boasts a solid 3.60 ERA this season. His luck may be questioned, given his 4.55 xFIP, which implies regression is possible. Conversely, Montero, with an average 4.60 ERA, has projections suggesting trouble, including a high average of 2.8 earned runs in only 4.5 innings of work.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Orioles are favored with a 58% projected win probability. Their potent offense, coupled with home-field advantage, positions them as a strong contender, while the Tigers will look to their superior bullpen, ranked 10th, to mitigate the Baltimore bats and keep the contest competitive.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Keider Montero – Over/Under Strikeouts
  The Baltimore Orioles have 8 bats in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Keider Montero in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen projects as the 10th-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Albert Suarez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Ranking in the 15th percentile, Albert Suarez has recorded an 18% K% this year.
  Explain: One of the best indicators of future strikeouts is past strikeouts.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Gunnar Henderson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.8-mph to 97.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under Total Bases
  Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under Team Total
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 70 games (+15.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 games (+16.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Jake Rogers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Jake Rogers has hit the Total Bases Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.55 Units / 19% ROI)