Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Royals vs Tigers – 8/2/2024

Kansas City Royals

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Detroit Tigers

On August 2, 2024, the Detroit Tigers will host the Kansas City Royals at Comerica Park in a critical American League Central matchup. The Tigers, with a record of 52-58, are struggling this season and currently sit in fourth place in the division. In contrast, the Royals are enjoying a solid campaign at 61-49 and are looking to maintain their position in the playoff hunt. In their last game, the Royals defeated the Tigers 5-3, a result that emphasizes the need for Detroit to turn things around quickly.

The pitching matchup features two left-handed starters: Tarik Skubal for the Tigers and Cole Ragans for the Royals. Skubal has been nothing short of impressive this season, currently ranked as the 1st best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. He boasts a stellar 12-3 record and a remarkable ERA of 2.35. However, it’s worth noting that his 2.87 SIERA suggests he may have benefited from some good fortune this year, indicating potential regression.

On the other hand, Cole Ragans, ranked 14th among starters, has a solid 3.37 ERA but has faced some bad luck, as evidenced by his FIP of 2.69, which is lower than his ERA. Both pitchers are averaging around 5.7 to 5.9 innings, but Skubal’s high strikeout rate of 30.0% could be diminished against a Royals lineup that ranks as the 2nd least strikeout-prone in MLB.

Offensively, the Tigers are struggling, ranking 26th in MLB, while the Royals sit mid-pack at 12th. Colt Keith has been a bright spot for Detroit recently, but the overall lack of offensive production could hinder their chances against a Royals team that has a well-rounded lineup, led by Bobby Witt Jr.

With the game total set at a low 7.0 runs, the betting markets indicate a close contest. The Tigers’ moneyline is currently at -120, suggesting a slight edge, but they will need to capitalize on Skubal’s elite talent to secure a win against a Royals team that is playing well.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Cole Ragans – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  As a result of his large reverse platoon split, Cole Ragans should be in good shape matching up with 8 bats in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in this game.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Freddy Fermin – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Freddy Fermin has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .345 mark is a good deal higher than his .289 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  In today’s matchup, Hunter Renfroe is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 40% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Tarik Skubal’s fastball velocity has increased 1.2 mph this season (96.2 mph) over where it was last season (95 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Justyn-Henry Malloy – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Justyn-Henry Malloy is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers’s expected catcher today) projects as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Run Line -1.5 (+180)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 24 games (+9.45 Units / 27% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Run Line +1.5 (-210)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 110 games (+7.64 Units / 5% ROI)
• Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-235)
  Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.90 Units / 31% ROI)