Discover Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Mets vs Marlins – 9/27/2025

New York Mets

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to face the New York Mets on September 27, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, the stakes are palpable, especially following the Marlins’ decisive 6-2 victory in their last encounter. Both teams find themselves in the middle of the pack, with the Marlins sitting at 78-82 and the Mets at 82-78, leading to a matchup that holds significance for both squads as they look to finish the season strong.

Eury Perez, the projected starter for the Marlins, is ranked as the 53rd best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his potential despite an ERA of 4.20 this season. Although he projects to pitch an average of just 4.6 innings today, his lack of luck reflects in his xERA of 3.24, suggesting he could perform better. However, his flyball tendencies could be problematic against a Mets offense that ranks 5th in home runs this season with 223.

Meanwhile, Clay Holmes steps to the mound for New York. While he’s had a solid season with a 3.66 ERA and an 11-8 record, his xFIP indicates he might have been a tad fortunate this year. He projects to allow 1.6 earned runs over 3.7 innings, which may be in the Marlins’ favor, given their low power output ranking 26th in home runs. The matchup presents an intriguing dynamic, as Holmes is a groundball pitcher, which could neutralize the Marlins’ lack of long-ball threats.

Given their recent performance and the projections, Miami’s moneyline sits at +110, while New York is at -130. With the Marlins’ offense ranking 19th and the Mets’ at 6th overall, bettors might find value in the Marlins, who could surprise given their recent momentum and the potential for Perez to outperform expectations on this crucial date.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
  In his previous start, Clay Holmes turned in a great performance and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Brandon Nimmo has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 9.1% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Mets projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-best on the slate in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+100)
  Eury Perez is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.5% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #25 HR venue in MLB in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Connor Norby – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Connor Norby has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 83.4-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 95 games (+22.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 96 games (+10.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (-185/+145)
  Juan Soto has hit the Walks Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+7.85 Units / 47% ROI)