Seattle Mariners
Atlanta Braves
(-110/-110)-110
As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face the Seattle Mariners on September 7, 2025, both teams come into this matchup with contrasting fortunes. The Braves, sitting at 64-78, are having a below-average season, while the Mariners boast a record of 74-68, indicating they are performing above expectations. This game marks the third in the series, with the Mariners winning the previous contest decisively by a score of 10-2.
On the mound, the Braves will send Joey Wentz, who has struggled this season, ranking as the 209th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Wentz has a Win/Loss record of 5-5 and an ERA of 5.12, indicating a tough year. In his last start on September 2, he pitched just 4 innings, allowing 4 earned runs while striking out 8. The projections suggest he will pitch around 4.9 innings today, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs, which could put the Braves in a tough spot.
Luis Castillo, the Mariners’ starter, has been more reliable, with an 8-8 record and a solid ERA of 3.94. Although he struggled in his last outing, giving up 5 earned runs over 4 innings, he remains an average pitcher overall. The projections indicate he will pitch 5.0 innings today, allowing about 3.0 earned runs, which gives Seattle a slight edge in the pitching matchup.
Offensively, the Mariners rank 12th in MLB, driven by their powerful lineup that includes the 3rd best home run production. In contrast, the Braves’ offense is ranked 15th overall but has shown signs of life recently, particularly from their best hitter, who has been on a hot streak with a .391 batting average over the last week.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Luis Castillo’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (94.4 mph) below where it was last year (95.5 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) provides evidence that Victor Robles has been lucky since the start of last season with his .298 actual batting average.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Seattle’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in MLB: #7 overall.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Joey Wentz – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)Tallying 91.6 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Joey Wentz places him the 77th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-150/+120)Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 93% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Atlanta Braves – Run Line +1.5 (-160)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+9.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 75 of their last 136 games (+13.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.00 Units / 32% ROI)