Detailed Player Insights for Rockies vs Tigers - 9/12/2026

+140O/U: 8.5
(-105/-115)-160

Tanner Gordon – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
Tanner Gordon’s 92-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 25th percentile out of all starters.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Connor Norby – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
Connor Norby has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Colorado Rockies in today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .302, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .320 this year.
Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Andrew Sears – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
Compared to the average starter, Andrew Sears has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -13.9 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Colt Keith – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
Colt Keith’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 88.7-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 78.2-mph in the past week’s worth of games.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers’ bullpen ranks as the 5th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-115)
The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 46% ROI)
Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.70 Units / 50% ROI)
Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 25 games (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)

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