Cincinnati Reds
St. Louis Cardinals
(-110/-110)+100
As the St. Louis Cardinals prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on September 16, 2025, the stakes are high in this National League Central matchup. The Cardinals, sitting at 73-78, find themselves in a below-average season, while the Reds, at 75-75, have had an average year. Yesterday, the Cardinals lost to the Reds by a score of 11-6, a result that underlines their struggles against Cincinnati.
On the mound, St. Louis is projected to start Michael McGreevy, who ranks as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics. McGreevy’s ERA stands at 4.44, indicating average performance, but his 3.84 FIP suggests that he may have been unlucky this season. In his last outing on September 10, McGreevy pitched well, allowing only 1 earned run over 6 innings. However, he projects to allow 2.2 earned runs today, with concerning averages of 5.6 hits and 1.0 walks allowed.
Cincinnati counters with Andrew Abbott, who has been impressive this season, boasting an ERA of 2.79 and ranking 66th among MLB starting pitchers. Abbott recently completed a remarkable 8-inning game, allowing just 1 earned run, and he projects to allow 2.6 earned runs today.
Offensively, the Cardinals rank 24th in MLB, struggling particularly with power, as they rank 28th in home runs. Conversely, the Reds have a more balanced offense, ranking 18th. Betting markets give Cincinnati a slight edge, with a moneyline of -125, but with the projections indicating that the Cardinals’ bullpen is the 5th best in MLB, St. Louis may well have the advantage in the later innings, making this matchup one to watch closely.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #27 HR venue in the majors today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Matt McLain has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (56% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Matt McLain hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 7th-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Considering the 1.1 disparity between Michael McGreevy’s 5.35 K/9 and his 6.45 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see positive regression going forward.Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Lars Nootbaar – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Lars Nootbaar has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Ranking 8th-least steep in the league this year, St. Louis Cardinals hitters collectively have notched a 12.9° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable standard to evaluate power skills).Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-125/-105)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 63 of their last 110 games (+9.60 Units / 7% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 122 games (+23.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- Michael McGreevy – Over/Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (-110/-120)Michael McGreevy has hit the Hits Allowed Over in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 83% ROI)