Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
(-105/-115)-200
The San Diego Padres welcome the Pittsburgh Pirates to Petco Park for the first game of their series on August 12, 2024. Both teams are coming off close losses, with the Padres falling to the Miami Marlins 7-6 and the Pirates losing 6-5 to the Los Angeles Dodgers. With the Padres sporting a solid 66-53 record, they remain in contention for a Wild Card spot, while the Pirates, at 56-61, find themselves struggling in the standings.
On the mound, San Diego is projected to start Joe Musgrove, who has had a tumultuous season with a 3-4 record and a concerning ERA of 5.66. However, his 4.32 xFIP indicates he could be due for some positive regression. Musgrove’s recent outing on May 26 saw him pitch five innings while allowing just one earned run, showing flashes of his potential. He faces Jake Woodford of the Pirates, who has yet to secure a win this season (0-3) and has an even higher ERA of 7.41. The projections suggest that Musgrove will allow 1.6 earned runs over his average of 3.6 innings pitched, while Woodford is expected to pitch slightly longer at 4.1 innings but with a projection of 2.3 earned runs.
Offensively, the Padres rank 1st in MLB in team batting average, which bodes well against Woodford’s struggles. San Diego’s best hitter, Jurickson Profar, has transitioned well this season, contributing significantly to the team’s offensive output. In contrast, the Pirates rank 27th in team offense, making this matchup particularly lopsided. With San Diego’s elite bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB, they should have the upper hand as they look to bounce back after yesterday’s narrow defeat.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)Oneil Cruz has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.1-mph to 101-mph over the past 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)Michael A. Taylor hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Joe Musgrove – Over/Under Pitching OutsThe leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Joe Musgrove to be on a bit of a short leash in this game, projecting a maximum of 58 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Despite posting a .380 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jurickson Profar has had positive variance on his side given the .056 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .324.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Joe Musgrove – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)Kyle Higashioka, the Padres’s expected catcher today, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-200)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 52 games (+11.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-120)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 95 games (+10.65 Units / 9% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.85 Units / 33% ROI)