D-Backs vs Rockies Picks and Betting Trends – 6/20/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks for the first game of their series at Coors Field on June 20, 2025. Both teams are having contrasting seasons, with the Rockies struggling at 17-58, while the Diamondbacks sit at a more respectable 37-37. The Rockies are coming off a narrow loss on June 19, falling to the Diamondbacks by a score of 4-3, while the Diamondbacks enjoyed a victory in their last outing, winning 9-5 against the same opponent.

On the mound, Colorado will send Austin Gomber, who has had a rocky season despite a perfect ERA of 0.00 in his lone start. However, his 4.39 xFIP suggests he has been fortunate and may struggle against a potent Diamondbacks lineup that ranks 3rd in MLB offensively. Gomber’s high flyball rate (54% FB%) could be a concern against a team that has belted 104 home runs this season, ranking 4th in the league.

Zac Gallen will take the ball for Arizona, bringing a 5.19 ERA that masks a more favorable 4.31 xFIP, indicating he has been somewhat unlucky this year. Gallen’s ability to strike out 5.3 batters on average and pitch an average of 5.3 innings gives him a solid edge in this matchup.

While the Rockies’ offense ranks 26th in MLB, the projections suggest they may find some success today with a high implied team total of 5.19 runs. Conversely, the Diamondbacks boast an impressive implied total of 6.31 runs, reflecting their offensive prowess. With the Rockies’ struggles and Gallen’s potential for a bounce-back performance, the Diamondbacks appear well-positioned to secure a win in this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-145)
  Zac Gallen is an extreme groundball pitcher (42.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #7 HR venue in MLB — in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Eugenio Suarez has big-time power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Austin Gomber has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• The Arizona Diamondbacks offense projects for the most runs of all teams on the slate today, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-165/+125)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Austin Gomber will benefit from squaring off against 8 batters in the projected offense who bat from the opposite side in this outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Ryan McMahon has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.5-mph average to last season’s 92-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .307 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .324 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 65 games (+7.52 Units / 10% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 39 of their last 64 games (+11.90 Units / 16% ROI)
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Jordan Beck has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)