D-Backs vs Rockies Betting Guide – 8/17/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Colorado Rockies

On August 17, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field in a National League West matchup. This game holds significance as it is the fourth in the series, with the Rockies coming off a notable victory, having won their last game 10-7 against the D-Backs. However, both teams are struggling this season, with the Rockies holding a dismal record of 34-89, while the Diamondbacks sit at 60-64, reflecting a below-average performance.

The Rockies will send Antonio Senzatela to the mound, who has had a rough year, sporting a 4-14 record and an alarming ERA of 7.34. In his last outing on August 1, he was hit hard, allowing 8 earned runs over just 1 inning pitched. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his xFIP of 5.13 indicates he could perform better moving forward. Senzatela is projected to pitch 4.1 innings today, allowing an average of 3.1 earned runs, which is concerning.

On the other side, the Diamondbacks will counter with Nabil Crismatt, who also ranks among the worst pitchers in MLB. Crismatt has a projected performance that includes 4.0 innings pitched and 3.6 earned runs allowed, making him a less-than-ideal option as well.

Offensively, the Rockies have struggled, ranking 25th in MLB, while the Diamondbacks boast a much stronger lineup, ranking 4th in the league. The Rockies’ best hitter has shown flashes of brilliance lately, recording a .625 batting average over the last week, while the Diamondbacks’ top player has been even hotter, putting up a .414 average during the same stretch.

With a high Game Total of 12.5 runs, this matchup could see some fireworks, especially given the Rockies’ implied team total of 5.76 runs. As they look to build on their recent success, the Rockies will need to capitalize on the Diamondbacks’ shaky pitching to pull off another win.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-150)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Connor Kaiser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Kaiser in the 1st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Antonio Senzatela has recorded 14 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 9th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Colorado Rockies offense projects to score the most runs of all teams on the slate, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 118 games (+15.27 Units / 11% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 88 games (+15.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+440/-700)
  Blaze Alexander has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+22.00 Units / 314% ROI)