D-Backs vs Rockies Betting Guide – 8/17/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

On August 17, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field in a National League West matchup. Yesterday, the Rockies notched a surprising win against the Diamondbacks, scoring 10 runs to Arizona’s 7, which highlights the volatility of these teams as they continue their series. Despite that victory, Colorado’s struggles this season are evident, with a dismal 34-89 record, placing them well out of contention.

The Rockies will send right-handed pitcher Antonio Senzatela to the mound. Senzatela currently holds a 4-14 record and an alarming 7.34 ERA, making him one of the least effective pitchers in the league. However, his 5.13 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky, providing a glimmer of hope that he could improve in future outings. He is projected to pitch around 4.0 innings today, allowing approximately 3.3 earned runs.

On the other hand, the Diamondbacks will counter with Nabil Crismatt, also a right-handed pitcher. Crismatt’s season has not fared much better, as he is similarly ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB. He is projected to pitch 3.9 innings, allowing about 3.6 earned runs.

Offensively, the Rockies rank 25th in MLB, struggling to generate consistent run support, while the Diamondbacks boast a much stronger offense, currently ranked 4th. This discrepancy could be pivotal, especially given that the Rockies’ best hitter has seen a recent uptick in performance, batting .625 over the past week with 1 home run.

With the Rockies positioned as underdogs today, the projections favor Arizona to score approximately 6.76 runs compared to Colorado’s 5.74. Given the offensive strength of the Diamondbacks and their recent performance, they appear to have the upper hand heading into this matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-140)
  Among all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Connor Kaiser – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Kaiser in the 1st percentile when estimating his batting average skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Antonio Senzatela has recorded 14 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 9th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+155/-205)
  Mickey Moniak has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Colorado Rockies offense projects to score the most runs of all teams on the slate, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 118 games (+15.27 Units / 11% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-155)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 49 of their last 88 games (+15.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Blaze Alexander – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450/-750)
  Blaze Alexander has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+22.00 Units / 314% ROI)