D-Backs vs Phillies Bets and Betting Trends – 5/03/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 3, 2025, in what shapes up to be a closely contested matchup. The Phillies, currently 18-14 and coming off a narrow victory against the Diamondbacks by a score of 3-2 yesterday, are looking to build on their promising start to the season. Meanwhile, Arizona sits at 17-15, showing some strong form with an above-average record.

Both teams are neck-and-neck, making this series crucial for establishing dominance early in the year. The advanced-stat Power Rankings show the Phillies ranking 24th in bullpen effectiveness, which could be a concern as the season progresses. In contrast, the Diamondbacks are at a more favorable 12th, potentially giving their offense an edge if games are close late.

On the mound for Philadelphia, Aaron Nola is projected to start. Despite being ranked 70th among approximately 350 MLB starters, Nola has struggled with a 0-5 record and a 5.40 ERA this season. However, his peripheral statistics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, hinting at a possible turnaround. His last start on April 27 saw him pitch 7 innings of solid ball, allowing just 1 earned run.

Opposing him will be Brandon Pfaadt, who boasts a 5-1 record and a stellar 2.78 ERA. Pfaadt has shown a tendency to limit walks, an essential trait against the patient Phillies offense, who rank 6th in the league in drawing walks. However, the projections indicate that he may not maintain his current level of success as the season unfolds.

As both teams vie for a crucial win, the Phillies hold a high implied team total of 4.86 runs, reflecting confidence in their offensive capabilities, especially against someone like Pfaadt who may be due for some regression. This matchup promises to be an exciting one, with both teams eager to capitalize on their current momentum.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to the average hurler, Brandon Pfaadt has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an additional 3.2 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#3-worst on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-best on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Aaron Nola – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Aaron Nola has used his change-up 6% more often this season (15.6%) than he did last year (9.6%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Bryson Stott – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Bryson Stott has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.1% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 7th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+6.70 Units / 55% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-105/-125)
  Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 away games (+7.55 Units / 47% ROI)