D-Backs vs Nationals Prediction and Game Breakdown – Friday April 4, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Washington Nationals

The Arizona Diamondbacks will visit Nationals Park on April 4, 2025, for the first game of their series against the Washington Nationals. Currently, the Nationals sit at 1-5 this season, struggling to find their rhythm, while the Diamondbacks boast a respectable 4-3 record. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Jake Irvin for the Nationals and Brandon Pfaadt for the Diamondbacks.

Jake Irvin, despite being ranked the 203rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has shown signs of promise with a solid 3.60 ERA this season. However, his xFIP of 4.93 suggests he may have been riding a wave of luck, indicating potential struggles ahead. Irvin projects to pitch about 5.7 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up 5.2 hits and 1.9 walks could be detrimental against a potent Diamondbacks lineup.

On the other hand, Brandon Pfaadt, ranked 90th among MLB starters, has had a rough start with a 0-1 record and a 4.50 ERA. His xFIP of 3.37 implies he could improve as the season progresses. Pfaadt is expected to pitch around 5.8 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs, striking out 5.0 batters. However, he too has struggled with hits, projected to give up 5.4.

The Diamondbacks’ offense ranks 7th in MLB, showcasing their ability to score runs, while the Nationals’ offense lags at 23rd. With the Nationals’ best hitter performing well recently, boasting a .350 batting average and a 1.131 OPS over the last week, they have a glimmer of hope. However, the projections favor the Diamondbacks, who are poised to capitalize on the Nationals’ pitching woes. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, indicating expectations for a competitive matchup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  The Washington Nationals have 7 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Eugenio Suarez has big-time HR ability (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a guarantee (28.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin is a pitch-to-contact type (19th percentile K%) — great news for Suarez.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (-125)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 41 of their last 74 games at home (+6.10 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 69 of their last 107 games (+31.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• CJ Abrams – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+8.30 Units / 277% ROI)