D-Backs vs Brewers Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 9/20/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off on September 20, 2024, at American Family Field in a National League matchup. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Brewers holding an 88-65 record and the Diamondbacks close behind at 85-68. As the postseason approaches, this game could have significant implications for playoff seeding.

In the first game of the series, the Brewers secured a victory, adding to their momentum. Milwaukee’s offense ranks 9th in MLB, showcasing a balanced attack with a solid batting average and a penchant for stealing bases. Rhys Hoskins has been particularly hot, boasting a .353 batting average and 1.215 OPS over the last week. On the mound, the Brewers will start Colin Rea, who has a 12-5 record but is ranked 233rd among starting pitchers. His peripheral stats suggest he’s been fortunate, with a 4.75 FIP indicating potential regression.

The Diamondbacks, despite their recent loss, boast the league’s top-ranked offense, excelling in both batting average and home runs. Randal Grichuk has been a standout performer recently, hitting .500 with a 1.800 OPS in the last week. Zac Gallen will take the mound for Arizona, bringing a 12-6 record and a 3.61 ERA. Ranked 26th among starting pitchers, Gallen’s projections suggest a solid outing, with an average of 5.7 innings pitched and 6.1 strikeouts.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Diamondbacks are favored with a 61% win probability, higher than the betting market’s implied probability of 53%. This projection suggests potential value in backing Arizona, especially given their offensive prowess and Gallen’s strong pitching profile. With both teams vying for playoff positioning, this matchup promises to be an exciting contest.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Zac Gallen has gone to his curveball 5.2% more often this year (27.9%) than he did last season (22.7%).
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Milwaukee’s #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Joc Pederson pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)
  Among every team on the slate today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Garrett Mitchell – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Garrett Mitchell is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• It may be best to expect worse results for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 81 of their last 143 games (+7.60 Units / 4% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 59 of their last 90 games (+27.55 Units / 28% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+10.65 Units / 87% ROI)