D-Backs vs Brewers Insights and Game Breakdown – 8/27/2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Milwaukee Brewers

On August 27, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at American Family Field in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. After a thrilling 9-8 victory yesterday, the Brewers aim to extend their lead in the division, sitting at an impressive 83-50 this season. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks, at 64-69, find themselves struggling and seeking to turn their fortunes around.

The Brewers are projected to start left-handed pitcher Aaron Ashby, who comes off a solid outing where he allowed just 2 earned runs over 5 innings. His effectiveness could be crucial against a Diamondbacks offense that, while ranked 4th overall in MLB, faces a challenge against Ashby’s left-handed approach. On the other side, Arizona will rely on right-hander Ryne Nelson, who has had a decent season with a 6-3 record and a 3.63 ERA. Nelson’s low walk rate (6.6 BB%) could play a significant role in this matchup, especially against a Brewers lineup that tends to draw walks.

The Brewers’ offense has been particularly potent, ranking 2nd in MLB in team batting average, and they are projected to score an average of 4.54 runs in this contest. In contrast, the Diamondbacks, despite their strong overall ranking, are projected for a modest 3.96 runs. With the Brewers’ recent performance and their strong home record, they enter this game as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140.

Overall, this game presents a compelling narrative: the Brewers are not only looking to maintain their momentum but also capitalize on their advantageous matchup against a struggling Diamondbacks team. As both teams continue their seasons, this contest could be pivotal for the Brewers in their quest for postseason success.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Ryne Nelson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ryne Nelson has gone to his non-fastballs 8.2% less often this season (35.8%) than he did last season (44%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Adrian Del Castillo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Adrian Del Castillo is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 9.3% Barrel% of the Arizona Diamondbacks ranks them as the #9 squad in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)
  Among every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Milwaukee Brewers.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Blake Perkins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Blake Perkins’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 88.7-mph seasonal average has lowered to 84.8-mph in the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• William Contreras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  William Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (-140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 60 of their last 85 games (+31.95 Units / 28% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 63 of their last 119 games (+12.45 Units / 8% ROI)
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.55 Units / 26% ROI)