Current Player Trends for Tigers vs Rockies – Tuesday May 06, 2025

Detroit Tigers

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Colorado Rockies

On May 6, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will face off against the Detroit Tigers at Coors Field in what marks the first game of their interleague series. The Rockies, who are struggling this season with a dismal 6-28 record, sit at the bottom of the National League West. In contrast, the Tigers are having a strong year at 22-13, placing them in a competitive position in the American League Central.

Chase Dollander is projected to take the mound for the Rockies. Despite having a Win/Loss record of 2-3, his 6.48 ERA indicates significant struggles, although his 4.08 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky this year. Dollander’s high flyball rate (38%) could be problematic against a powerful Tigers offense that ranks 5th in the league with 47 home runs. Conversely, Jackson Jobe, starting for Detroit, boasts a solid 3.38 ERA and an unbeaten record of 2-0. However, his 4.91 xFIP indicates that he may not sustain this level of performance.

The Rockies’ offense ranks last in the league, both overall and in batting average, which poses a challenge against Jobe, who is adept at inducing ground balls (49% GB rate). While the Rockies have been striking out at an alarming rate (the highest in MLB), Jobe’s low strikeout percentage (17.7 K%) might not be as punishing as it seems.

While Dollander’s performance has been shaky, the Rockies’ bullpen is ranked 6th, providing some glimmer of hope. The Tigers’ bullpen, however, is ranked 1st, making it likely that they’ll have the upper hand late in the game. With an implied team total of 5.37 runs, the Tigers are favored to win, but the Rockies’ strong bullpen may keep them competitive in this matchup.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-170)
  Jackson Jobe is an extreme flyball pitcher (34.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #5 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Colt Keith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Colt Keith is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  When assessing his overall offensive talent, Kerry Carpenter ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Chase Dollander – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Chase Dollander in the 82nd percentile among all starters in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Jordan Beck – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  This season, Jordan Beck has experienced a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 100.1 mph compared to last year’s 90.2 mph mark.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected lineup is a bit watered down, as their .296 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .315 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-125)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Trey Sweeney – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Trey Sweeney has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.20 Units / 255% ROI)