Current Player Trends for Royals vs Phillies – Saturday September 13, 2025

Kansas City Royals

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies and Kansas City Royals meet for the second game of their series on September 13, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies are currently enjoying a strong season with an 88-60 record, while the Royals sit at a mediocre 74-74. This matchup holds significance as the Phillies look to solidify their playoff positioning, especially after a tough loss to the Royals in yesterday’s game.

Projected starting pitcher Taijuan Walker has had a challenging year, with a 4-8 record and an ERA of 4.03, ranking him as one of the lower-tier pitchers in the league. His 4.67 xFIP indicates he may have benefitted from some good fortune, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Walker is projected to pitch 5.3 innings today, allowing 3.1 earned runs on average, which could spell trouble against a Royals lineup that, despite its struggles, has some capable hitters.

On the other side, Ryan Bergert, also a right-handed pitcher, has had a decent season with a 2-2 record and an impressive ERA of 3.48. However, his 4.73 xFIP suggests he might be living on borrowed time, as well. Bergert is projected for 4.4 innings, allowing 2.9 earned runs, which could keep the Royals competitive.

The Phillies’ offense ranks 4th overall in MLB, boasting a potent lineup that includes their best hitter, who has been on fire lately with a .412 batting average over the past week. In contrast, the Royals’ offense ranks 25th, struggling to produce runs consistently. With the Phillies favored at -150, and their strong home advantage, they are expected to bounce back and take control of this series.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Ryan Bergert – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Among all starting pitchers, Ryan Bergert’s fastball spin rate of 2405 rpm grades out in the 77th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  When it comes to his home runs, Salvador Perez has been unlucky this year. His 25.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 33.7.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Taijuan Walker – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Taijuan Walker has averaged 14.9 outs per start this year, placing in the 24th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Harrison Bader has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Harrison Bader pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.4% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 107 games (+15.11 Units / 12% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 126 games (+21.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Brandon Marsh – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Brandon Marsh has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.05 Units / 112% ROI)