Current Player Trends for Red Sox vs Marlins - Tuesday August 25, 2026

-155O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)+135

Boston Red Sox – Moneyline (-155)
The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team on the slate today.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Wilyer Abreu has a strong chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
Jarren Duran – Over/Under Total Bases
Jarren Duran has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tyler Phillips – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-135/+105)
Compared to league average, Tyler Phillips has been given less leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -15.2 fewer adjusted pitches each start.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Xavier Edwards – Over/Under Total Bases
Hitters such as Xavier Edwards with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Payton Tolle who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
The Miami Marlins have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers, Joe Mack).
Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

WriteNow™ by EV Analytics