Current Player Trends for Pirates vs Royals – Tuesday July 08, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Kansas City Royals

On July 8, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Kauffman Stadium in the second game of their interleague series. The Royals are currently sitting at 44-48, struggling through a below-average season, while the Pirates are at 38-54, having an even tougher time this year. In their last matchup on July 7, the Royals secured a decisive 9-3 victory, a welcome boost after a challenging stretch.

Projected starters for this game are Seth Lugo for the Royals and Mitch Keller for the Pirates. Lugo has been solid this season, with an impressive 2.65 ERA and a 6-5 record across 16 starts. Although his 4.03 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat lucky, his recent form, including a strong outing where he pitched 6 innings with just 1 earned run allowed, indicates he can still deliver effective performances. On the other hand, Keller, with a 3.64 ERA and a 3-10 record, has struggled this season, particularly against teams with low strikeout rates, like the Royals.

Offensively, both teams have had their challenges. The Royals rank 26th in MLB in team offense, while the Pirates are even lower at 29th. However, the projections suggest that Kansas City’s lineup, while not explosive, may have a slight edge against Keller, who has a low strikeout percentage and a tendency to allow hits.

With a game total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Royals are favored with a moneyline of -140, implying they should come out on top again. If Lugo can maintain his solid performance while the Royals’ offense finds a rhythm, they could secure another win against the struggling Pirates.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Mitch Keller – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Mitch Keller has utilized his slider 9.6% more often this season (34.7%) than he did last season (25.1%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jack Suwinski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-120/-110)
  Jack Suwinski has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (69% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Out of all starters, Seth Lugo’s fastball velocity of 91.3 mph ranks in the 23rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Jonathan India has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph to 96.2-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Salvador Perez pulls many of his flyballs (37.1% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 80 games (+30.85 Units / 33% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 50 of their last 82 games (+15.45 Units / 16% ROI)
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+130/-170)
  Oneil Cruz has hit the Walks Under in 15 of his last 20 away games (+5.25 Units / 14% ROI)