Cubs vs Tigers Picks and Betting Odds – 6/7/2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Detroit Tigers

As the Chicago Cubs face off against the Detroit Tigers on June 7, 2025, both teams are in strong contention for playoff positions, with the Cubs holding a record of 39-24 and the Tigers at 42-23. The matchup is significant as it marks the second game in their series, with both teams looking to capitalize on their solid seasons. In their previous encounter, the Tigers edged out the Cubs in a closely contested game, putting them in a favorable spot heading into this matchup.

On the mound, the Tigers are set to start right-handed pitcher Keider Montero, who has had a mixed season. Montero holds a 2-1 record with an ERA of 4.02, which is slightly above average. However, his peripherals suggest he may be due for a regression. The projections indicate that he could allow 2.9 earned runs and 5.3 hits while striking out around 4.0 batters today. Facing him will be Cubs’ righty Jameson Taillon, who has a better ERA of 3.76 but is also projected to struggle against the Tigers’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

Offensively, the Tigers rank 9th in MLB, showcasing their power with a solid home run count, while the Cubs boast an even stronger 4th place ranking, particularly highlighted by their 2nd place standing in team batting average. This could be a crucial factor, especially considering the Tigers’ bullpen ranks 3rd in the league, providing them with a late-game advantage.

With both teams evenly matched and the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, this game promises to be a thrilling contest. The sportsbooks have set the moneyline at -110 for both teams, indicating that they anticipate a closely contested battle. Bettors should keep an eye on the performances of both starting pitchers, as their outcomes could significantly impact the game’s direction.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Jameson Taillon is an extreme flyball pitcher (38% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #23 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Michael Busch – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Michael Busch is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  In today’s matchup, Seiya Suzuki is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 42.6% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tyler Holton – Over/Under 1.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  With 9 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Tyler Holton meets a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Zach McKinstry has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 83.7-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Keider Montero – Over/Under Strikeouts
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Jake Rogers (the Tigers’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+12.38 Units / 17% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 47 games (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
• Matt Shaw – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Matt Shaw has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 38% ROI)