Cubs vs Dodgers Picks and Betting Tips – April 13th, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs are set to clash on April 13, 2025, in what is the third game of their series. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Dodgers sporting an 11-5 record and the Cubs at 10-7, but a stark contrast in their previous games adds a layer of intrigue. On April 12, the Cubs dominated the Dodgers in a shutout, winning 16-0, leaving Los Angeles seeking redemption and momentum.

On the mound for the Dodgers is Tyler Glasnow, who, despite being ranked 9th among starting pitchers in MLB according to advanced stats, has struggled this season with a bloated 6.43 ERA. However, Glasnow projects to allow only 2.3 earned runs over an average of 5.6 innings today, offering a glimmer of hope for Dodgers fans. The Cubs will counter with Colin Rea, who has yet to start a game this season but holds an impressive 0.00 ERA in three relief appearances. Nevertheless, projections indicate that Rea may be due for regression given his higher xFIP of 4.40.

The Dodgers rank 1st in MLB for home runs and 8th in overall offensive power. In contrast, the Cubs’ offense ranks 3rd, showcasing their own potency at the plate. However, with the Dodgers’ elite bullpen ranked 5th and the Cubs’ struggling bullpen ranked 24th, late-game situations may favor Los Angeles.

With the Dodgers as heavy betting favorites—carrying a moneyline of -220 and an implied team total of 5.32 runs—the matchup presents an opportunity for them to bounce back after a tough defeat and demonstrate their offensive firepower against a pitcher untested as a starter this season.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+175)
  Considering the 0.96 deviation between Colin Rea’s 4.16 ERA and his 5.12 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season and should see worse results the rest of the season.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 8% rate last year has dropped to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Tyler Glasnow’s 2549.8-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 96th percentile out of all SPs.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Max Muncy will probably have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Chicago Cubs has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Today, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.3% rate (97th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 100 of their last 178 games (+21.35 Units / 11% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+175)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 away games (+5.45 Units / 77% ROI)
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+13.80 Units / 49% ROI)