Cubs vs Cardinals Picks and Odds – August 10, 2025

Chicago Cubs

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St. Louis Cardinals

The St. Louis Cardinals will host the Chicago Cubs on August 10, 2025, in what promises to be an exciting National League Central matchup. The Cardinals enter this game with a record of 59-59, having recently dropped a close game to the Cubs, while the Cubs are enjoying a strong season at 67-49.

Sonny Gray is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals, boasting an impressive 10-5 record this season. Although his ERA sits at 4.21, his 2.95 xFIP suggests he has been a bit unlucky and could improve. Gray’s high strikeout rate of 26.8% could be tested against a Cubs offense that ranks as the 4th least strikeout-prone in MLB. This matchup may favor the Cubs, as they can capitalize on Gray’s tendency to allow hits, projected at 5.1 per game—quite poor.

On the other side, Shota Imanaga will start for the Cubs. His 8-4 record and stellar 3.12 ERA indicate a solid performance this season, but his 4.59 xFIP shows he might be due for a regression. Imanaga’s tendency to give up fly balls could be problematic against a Cardinals lineup that has struggled to hit home runs, ranking 25th in MLB.

The Cubs’ offense, ranked 5th overall, is firing on all cylinders, especially their best hitter, who has been particularly hot with a .364 batting average over the last week. Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank 15th in overall offense, which might not be enough to keep pace with the Cubs.

With a low game total of 7.5 runs, betting markets suggest a close contest, reflected in the Cardinals’ moneyline at +105 and the Cubs’ at -125. This game offers a fascinating clash of strengths and weaknesses, setting the stage for an intriguing battle at Busch Stadium.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Shota Imanaga – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Shota Imanaga has utilized his slider 5.2% more often this season (12.9%) than he did last season (7.7%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs projected batting order projects as the 3rd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Sonny Gray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Sonny Gray’s 91.1-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a notable 1.2-mph decline from last year’s 92.3-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Typically, hitters like Nolan Gorman who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Shota Imanaga.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• St. Louis’s 89.5-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in the league: #10 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+10.15 Units / 11% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-135)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 64 of their last 109 games (+7.15 Units / 4% ROI)
• Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+155/-200)
  Nico Hoerner has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+7.65 Units / 76% ROI)