Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Yankees vs Twins – September 15, 2025

New York Yankees

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Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins will host the New York Yankees at Target Field on September 15, 2025, marking the first game of their series. The Yankees are currently thriving, sitting with a record of 83-66, while the Twins struggle at 65-84. This matchup features a clear disparity in performance; the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, while the Twins rank a mediocre 16th.

Both teams come into this game following disappointing losses, as both lost their previous contests by a score of 6-4. However, the Yankees’ offensive prowess stands out, especially with one of their star hitters recording five home runs over the last week and an impressive .450 batting average. The Twins, conversely, are facing challenges on both sides of the ball, as their best hitter has been relatively quiet lately with only two home runs in the same timeframe.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Simeon Woods Richard, who has struggled this season with a 4.58 ERA and ranks as the 164th best starting pitcher in MLB. In his last outing, he pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 earned runs, which does not inspire confidence. The Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon, who is having a stellar year with a 3.11 ERA and a much better ranking of 64th. He pitched well in his last start, going 6 innings with only 2 earned runs allowed.

With the Yankees’ potent offense stepping up against a vulnerable pitcher like Woods Richard, they are favored to capitalize on this opportunity. The projections estimate the Yankees could score 5.14 runs, while the Twins have a modest forecast of 3.86 runs. Given the strengths and weaknesses on display, the Yankees appear poised to secure a victory in this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average pitcher, Carlos Rodon has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 7.2 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Aaron Judge has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.6-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 95.4-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Simeon Woods Richard – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Simeon Woods Richardson has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 6.1% less often this year (53.7%) than he did last season (59.8%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Luke Keaschall has been lucky this year, putting up a .376 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .323 — a .053 disparity.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Byron Buxton ranks as the 15th-best hitter in MLB.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 39 games (+10.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 39 of their last 64 games (+14.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+8.95 Units / 61% ROI)