Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Tigers vs Guardians – July 24, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers square off on July 24, 2024, at Progressive Field. This American League Central matchup carries both divisional importance and a showcase of two talented right-handed pitchers. The Guardians, with a strong 60-40 record, seem poised for a postseason push, while the Tigers’ 50-52 mark reflects a more average season.

Yesterday, the Guardians narrowly edged out the Tigers, winning 5-4 and securing their second win in this series. Set to start for Cleveland is Tanner Bibee, who boasts a solid 8-4 record with a 3.58 ERA across 20 starts. Bibee shone in his last outing, pitching six shutout innings. On the other side, Detroit will counter with Jack Flaherty, who has a superior 3.13 ERA and an impressive 2.48 xFIP, indicating he’s been somewhat unlucky and might pitch even better moving forward. Flaherty’s last start was also notable as he went six innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out eight.

Cleveland’s offense, ranked 12th in overall effectiveness, will look to support Bibee. Anchored by Jose Ramirez, who has 24 home runs and 82 RBIs this season, the Guardians have shown balance with a mix of power and speed, ranking 15th in home runs and 10th in stolen bases. Conversely, the Tigers’ offense has struggled, ranked 24th overall and 26th in stolen bases, with Riley Greene leading the squad with a .268 average and 17 home runs.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Guardians are strong favorites, with a projected win probability of 61%—significantly higher than the betting market’s implied 56%. Given Cleveland’s solid pitching and respectable offense, coupled with Detroit’s below-average hitting, bettors might find value backing the Guardians in this matchup.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-155/+120)
  Jack Flaherty has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording 6.2 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Gio Urshela – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-225/+170)
  Gio Urshela is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Zach McKinstry hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Tanner Bibee has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, compiling a 10.25 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.41 — a 0.83 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Josh Naylor’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 90.3-mph seasonal average has fallen to 75.2-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cleveland Guardians (18.7 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-140)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 93 games (+9.67 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 80 games (+12.45 Units / 14% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Riley Greene has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+9.50 Units / 10% ROI)