New York Mets
Pittsburgh Pirates
(+100/-120)+135
As the Pittsburgh Pirates host the New York Mets on June 29, 2025, at PNC Park, both teams are coming into this matchup with contrasting seasons. The Pirates sit at a disappointing 34-50, while the Mets boast a solid 48-36 record. This game is crucial for both teams, especially with the Mets looking to solidify their standing among the top contenders in the National League.
In their previous game, the Mets showcased their offensive prowess, winning decisively against the Pirates. The Mets’ offense ranks 6th best in MLB, aided by their power-hitting capabilities, notably leading the league with 6th in home runs. In contrast, the Pirates’ offense has struggled, ranking 29th overall, and is last in home runs with just 56 this season. This stark difference in offensive output underscores the challenges the Pirates face today.
On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Michael Burrows, who has had a tough season, owning a 1-2 record and an average ERA of 4.45. The projections indicate that Burrows may be due for a turnaround, as his xFIP of 3.88 suggests he has been unlucky. However, he is still projected to pitch only 3.9 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which compounds the Pirates’ challenges.
Meanwhile, Frankie Montas takes the ball for the Mets. Despite being labeled as one of the worst pitchers in MLB, he comes off a game where he threw a complete game. His ERA is an impressive 0.00, but his xFIP of 4.93 indicates potential regression. Montas is projected to pitch 5.2 innings today, allowing 3.0 earned runs, which could be enough against the struggling Pirates lineup.
With the Game Total set at 9.5 runs and the Pirates listed as underdogs with an implied team total of 4.33 runs, this matchup offers intriguing betting opportunities. Given the Mets’ offensive strength and the Pirates’ ongoing struggles, this game could tilt heavily in favor of New York.
New York Mets Insights
- Frankie Montas – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Frankie Montas’s 95.6-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season is in the 84th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Pete Alonso has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Brandon Nimmo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)In today’s matchup, Brandon Nimmo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37% rate (94th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)Mike Burrows is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #28 HR venue among all stadiums in this game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Oneil Cruz has been unlucky this year. His .312 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .350.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- As a team, Pittsburgh Pirates batters have shined when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce base hits (between -4° and 26°), placing 4th-best in MLB.Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Betting Trends
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-140/+110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 51 games (+11.35 Units / 19% ROI)
- New York Mets – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+6.30 Units / 17% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+175/-235)Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 away games (+6.40 Units / 15% ROI)