Comprehensive Player Prop Odds for Giants vs Padres – August 20, 2025

San Francisco Giants

@

San Diego Padres

As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on August 20, 2025, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the National League West. The Padres, holding a record of 70-56, are enjoying a solid season, while the Giants sit at 61-65, struggling to find their footing. The Padres are currently projected to start JP Sears, who has had a challenging year with a 5.12 ERA and a ranking of #188 among MLB starters. In contrast, Landen Roupp for the Giants boasts an impressive 3.45 ERA and ranks #80, suggesting he has been more effective this season.

In their recent matchup, the Padres emerged victorious, which could boost their confidence heading into this game. JP Sears is known to be a high-flyball pitcher, which could play to his advantage against a Giants offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking #26 in home runs this season. This juxtaposition may lead to a favorable outcome for the Padres, especially given that the Giants have hit just 120 home runs this year, the 6th fewest in baseball.

San Diego’s offense, while ranking #20 overall, has been solid at the plate, coming in at #9 for team batting average. With their top hitter performing well over the past week—recording 8 hits, 5 runs, and 3 home runs—this could translate into scoring opportunities. The Padres’ bullpen also ranks 2nd in MLB, providing a strong safety net late in the game.

With the game total set at 8.0 runs and the Padres favored at a -155 moneyline, the projections suggest a strong chance for San Diego to capitalize on their home-field advantage and the Giants’ offensive struggles.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Landen Roupp to be on a bit of a short leash today, projecting a maximum of 81 pitches.
  Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jung Hoo Lee is penciled in 6th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Heliot Ramos has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

San Diego Padres Insights

• JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  JP Sears has relied on his slider 5.1% more often this year (38.9%) than he did last season (33.8%).
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.9-mph average last season has lowered to 85.4-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the San Diego Padres with a 18.1% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 115 games (+14.70 Units / 12% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 81 games (+13.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Manny Machado – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+135/-180)
  Manny Machado has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.40 Units / 48% ROI)