Pittsburgh Pirates
San Diego Padres
(-115/-105)-245
On August 13, 2024, the San Diego Padres will host the Pittsburgh Pirates in the second game of their series at Petco Park. The Padres, with a solid record of 67-53, are positioning themselves well with their playoff hopes, while the Pirates sit at 56-62, struggling to find their footing this season. In their last encounter on August 12, the Padres edged out the Pirates with a close 2-1 victory, underscoring the Padres’ current form.
San Diego will send Michael King to the mound, a right-hander ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting a commendable ERA of 3.34 this season. King has been effective, averaging 6.8 strikeouts per game, though he does allow a concerning 1.5 walks. Facing him, the Pirates will counter with Luis Ortiz, who, despite a decent ERA of 3.40, has a troubling xFIP of 4.69, suggesting he may have been fortunate this year. Ortiz’s low strikeout rate of 18.3 K% presents a challenge against the Padres’ offense, which ranks 1st in MLB in batting average and 9th in overall performance.
The projections favor the Padres significantly, estimating they will score around 5.07 runs, while the Pirates are expected to muster only 3.76 runs. Given the recent trends and the Padres’ advantage in both pitching and batting stats, they appear poised to secure another win against a Pirates team that has struggled offensively, making this matchup one to watch for bettors looking to capitalize on the Padres’ strong form.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Luis Ortiz’s cutter usage has risen by 20.9% from last year to this one (0.3% to 21.2%) .Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (35.3) may lead us to conclude that Oneil Cruz has had bad variance on his side this year with his 25.1 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Michael King – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Michael King’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (92.1 mph) below where it was last season (93.5 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)In the last two weeks, Xander Bogaerts’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.4% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Michael King – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)Kyle Higashioka, the Padres’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-245)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 43 games (+15.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 36 games (+11.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-165)Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 45 games (+9.40 Units / 18% ROI)